Bills vs Broncos – Week 15 2020
BUF
DEN
BUF
AWAY
48@19
BUF BY 29
FINAL · WEEK 15
2020 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Buffalo Bills 48, Denver Broncos 19.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Bills.
Model confidence: BUF 60%Our line: BUF -3.4
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -3.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
+0.147Net EPA / play-0.147
+0.164 (4)Offense EPA / play-0.104 (31)
+0.017 (12)Defense EPA / play+0.043 (18)
50.2% (2)Offense success %38.8% (32)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 3.4. Actual: 29. Off by 25.6 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 23.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
HIGH WIND
24 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
47°F
WIND
24 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@BUFW10 2023 | DEN 24, BUF 22 | BUF | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs DEN
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 3.4. The market has BUF at -5.5.
Buffalo Bills won, BUF 48, DEN 19. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -5.5, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 15, the Buffalo Bills were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.1, 0.9 below the market.
Week 15 of the 2020 season, SAT 4:30 PM.
Denver Broncos, DEN 24, BUF 22 in Week 10 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.147 against DEN -0.147.
