BUF @ DEN – Week 15 2020
BUF
DEN
BUF
AWAY
48@19
BUF BY 29
FINAL · WEEK 15
2020 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
Model confidence: BUF 60%Our line: BUF -3.4
BUF
PICK SIDE
-5.5
MARKET SPREAD
-3.4
OUR LINE
-149
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.147Net EPA / play-0.147
+0.164Offense EPA / play-0.104
+0.017Defense EPA / play+0.043
50.2%Offense success %38.8%
47.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 3.4. Actual: 29. Off by 25.6 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 23.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
HIGH WIND
24 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | BUF | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -242 | +212 |
| Our fair price | -149 | +149 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BUF -5.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.45
OUR NUMBER
60%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
69%
DIFFERENCE
-9%
Both figures are for BUF. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
47°F
WIND
24 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
BUF
Josh Allen
QB
396.1 SEASON PPR
Stefon Diggs
WR
328.6 SEASON PPR
Cole Beasley
WR
207.5 SEASON PPR
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Buffalo BillsPASSING
Josh Allen4544 yd · 37 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Devin Singletary687 yd · 2 TD
Zack Moss481 yd · 4 TD
Josh Allen421 yd · 8 TD
RECEIVING
Stefon Diggs127 rec · 1535 yd · 8 TD
Cole Beasley82 rec · 967 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@BUFW10 2023 | DEN 24, BUF 22 | BUF | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs DEN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 3.4. The market has BUF at -5.5.
The model projects 48.1 combined points. The market total is 49.0.
Week 15 of the 2020 season, SAT 4:30 PM.
Denver Broncos, DEN 24, BUF 22 in Week 10 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.147 against DEN -0.147.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
