SF @ DAL – Week 15 2020
SF
DAL
SF
AWAY
33@41
DAL BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 15
2020 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
Model confidence: SF 52%Our line: SF -0.7
SF
PICK SIDE
-4.0
MARKET SPREAD
-0.7
OUR LINE
-109
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.042Net EPA / play-0.098
+0.008Offense EPA / play-0.038
-0.034Defense EPA / play+0.060
46.0%Offense success %45.7%
42.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
SF C-tier pick misses. DAL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SF but DAL won. Projected margin was 0.7, the model overestimated by 8.7 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 12.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | SF | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -202 | +180 |
| Our fair price | -109 | +109 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD SF -4.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
52%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
65%
DIFFERENCE
-13%
Both figures are for SF. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
DAL
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
SF
Brandon Aiyuk
WR
184.5 SEASON PPR
Jeff Wilson
RB
142.3 SEASON PPR
Kendrick Bourne
WR
129.7 SEASON PPR
DAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
San Francisco 49ersPASSING
Nick Mullens2437 yd · 12 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Jeff Wilson600 yd · 7 TD
Raheem Mostert521 yd · 2 TD
Jerick McKinnon319 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
Brandon Aiyuk60 rec · 748 yd · 5 TD
Kendrick Bourne49 rec · 667 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@SFW8 2024 | DAL 24, SF 30 | SF | W |
| DAL@SFW5 2023 | DAL 10, SF 42 | SF | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs DAL
QUESTIONS
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 52% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project SF by 0.7. The market has SF at -4.0.
The model projects 48.1 combined points. The market total is 46.0.
Week 15 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, DAL 24, SF 30 in Week 8 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, San Francisco 49ers: SF +0.042 against DAL -0.098.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
