49ers vs Cowboys – Week 15 2020
SF
DAL
SF
AWAY
33@41
DAL BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 15
2020 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: San Francisco 49ers 33, Dallas Cowboys 41.
Going in, our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 52% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 49ers, 1 Cowboys.
Model confidence: SF 52%Our line: SF -0.7
ODDS
SPREAD
SF -4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SF -0.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
52%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
+0.042Net EPA / play-0.098
+0.008 (18)Offense EPA / play-0.038 (25)
-0.034 (8)Defense EPA / play+0.060 (20)
46.0% (14)Offense success %45.7% (17)
GAME NARRATIVE
SF C-tier pick misses. DAL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SF but DAL won. Projected margin was 0.7, the model overestimated by 8.7 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 12.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
DAL
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
SF
Brandon Aiyuk
WR
184.5 SEASON PPR
Jeff Wilson
RB
142.3 SEASON PPR
Kendrick Bourne
WR
129.7 SEASON PPR
DAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
San Francisco 49ersPASSING
Nick Mullens2437 yd · 12 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Jeff Wilson600 yd · 7 TD
Raheem Mostert521 yd · 2 TD
Jerick McKinnon319 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
Brandon Aiyuk60 rec · 748 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@SFW8 2024 | DAL 24, SF 30 | SF | W |
| DAL@SFW5 2023 | DAL 10, SF 42 | SF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs DAL
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 52% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project SF by 0.7. The market has SF at -4.0.
Dallas Cowboys won, SF 33, DAL 41. Our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 52% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has San Francisco 49ers at -4.0, meaning the book expects San Francisco 49ers to win by 4.0 points.
In Week 15, the San Francisco 49ers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Dallas Cowboys were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.1, 2.1 above the market.
Week 15 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, DAL 24, SF 30 in Week 8 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, San Francisco 49ers: SF +0.042 against DAL -0.098.
