Patriots vs Dolphins – Week 15 2020
NE
MIA
NE
AWAY
12@22
MIA BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 15
2020 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New England Patriots 12, Miami Dolphins 22.
Going in, our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 54% win probability, and the pick won.
Model confidence: MIA 54%Our line: MIA -1.3
ODDS
GAME TOTAL
PREDICTED TOTAL
47.0
VEGAS LINE
40.0
Projected by the earlier model, before the October 20 rebuild. It is not covered by the test results described for the new model.
SPREAD
MIA +1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIA -1.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
-0.076Net EPA / play+0.048
-0.004 (21)Offense EPA / play+0.007 (19)
+0.071 (22)Defense EPA / play-0.041 (7)
46.1% (12)Offense success %46.0% (13)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIA. Projected margin: 1.3. Actual: 10. Off by 8.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
No noteworthy trends
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
79°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New England PatriotsPASSING
Cam Newton2657 yd · 8 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Damien Harris691 yd · 2 TD
Cam Newton592 yd · 12 TD
Sony Michel449 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Jakobi Meyers59 rec · 729 yd · 0 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@NEW18 2025 | MIA 10, NE 38 | NE | W |
| NE@MIAW2 2025 | NE 33, MIA 27 | MIA | L |
| NE@MIAW12 2024 | NE 15, MIA 34 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NEW5 2024 | MIA 15, NE 10 | MIA | W |
| NE@MIAW8 2023 | NE 17, MIA 31 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs MIA
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 54% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project MIA by 1.3. The market has MIA at +1.5.
Miami Dolphins won, NE 12, MIA 22. Our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 54% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Miami Dolphins at +1.5, meaning the book expects Miami Dolphins to win by 1.5 points.
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.0, 7.0 above the market. That is a projection, not a pick.
Week 15 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, MIA 10, NE 38 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Miami Dolphins: NE -0.076 against MIA +0.048.
