NE @ MIA – Week 15 2020
NE
MIA
NE
AWAY
12@22
MIA BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 15
2020 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
Model confidence: MIA 54%Our line: MIA -1.3
MIA
PICK SIDE
+1.5
MARKET SPREAD
-1.3
OUR LINE
-117
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
-0.076Net EPA / play+0.048
-0.004Offense EPA / play+0.007
+0.071Defense EPA / play-0.041
46.1%Offense success %46.0%
48.7%
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIA. Projected margin: 1.3. Actual: 10. Off by 8.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINESPREAD MIA +1.5 · MARKET AVERAGE
OUR WIN PROBABILITY
54%
MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
47%
DIFFERENCE
+7%
| SOURCE | NE | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -120 | +109 |
The market probability above is the vig-free average of these prices.
RESULT Won · +$1.24
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
No noteworthy trends
MIA
Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
79°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New England PatriotsPASSING
Cam Newton2657 yd · 8 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Damien Harris691 yd · 2 TD
Cam Newton592 yd · 12 TD
Sony Michel449 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Jakobi Meyers59 rec · 729 yd · 0 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@NEW18 2025 | MIA 10, NE 38 | NE | W |
| NE@MIAW2 2025 | NE 33, MIA 27 | MIA | L |
| NE@MIAW12 2024 | NE 15, MIA 34 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NEW5 2024 | MIA 15, NE 10 | MIA | W |
| NE@MIAW8 2023 | NE 17, MIA 31 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs MIA
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 54% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project MIA by 1.3. The market has MIA at +1.5.
The model projects 47.0 combined points. The market total is 40.0.
Week 15 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, MIA 10, NE 38 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Miami Dolphins: NE -0.076 against MIA +0.048.
