Patriots vs Dolphins – Week 8 2023
NE
MIA
NE
AWAY
17@31
MIA BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 8
2023 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New England Patriots 17, Miami Dolphins 31.
Going in, our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Patriots.
Model confidence: MIA 72%Our line: MIA -7.8
ODDS
SPREAD
MIA -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIA -7.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
72%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
-0.136Net EPA / play+0.136
-0.191 (31)Offense EPA / play+0.097 (4)
-0.055 (12)Defense EPA / play-0.039 (15)
38.9% (28)Offense success %47.2% (5)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIA. Projected margin: 7.8. Actual: 14. Off by 6.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 6.5 points.
HIGH WIND
17 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
83°F
WIND
17 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NE
Ezekiel Elliott
RB
174.5 SEASON PPR
145.7 SEASON PPR
119.9 SEASON PPR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@NEW18 2025 | MIA 10, NE 38 | NE | W |
| NE@MIAW2 2025 | NE 33, MIA 27 | MIA | L |
| NE@MIAW12 2024 | NE 15, MIA 34 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NEW5 2024 | MIA 15, NE 10 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NEW2 2023 | MIA 24, NE 17 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs MIA
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 72% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project MIA by 7.8. The market has MIA at -7.5.
Miami Dolphins won, NE 17, MIA 31. Our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Miami Dolphins at -7.5, meaning the book expects Miami Dolphins to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 8, the New England Patriots were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.6, 0.9 below the market.
Week 8 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, MIA 10, NE 38 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Miami Dolphins: NE -0.136 against MIA +0.136.
