2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NE @ MIA – Week 8 2023
NE
MIA
NE
AWAY
17@31
MIA +14
FINAL · WEEK 8
2023 SEASON
MIA
HOME
TIER A
PICK: MIA
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: MIA 72%Projected margin: 6.1
MIA
PICK SIDE
-7.5
SPREAD
6.1
PROJ MARGIN
-294
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIA. Projected margin: 6.1. Actual: 14. Off by 7.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 6.5 points.
HIGH WIND
17 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.5 | MIA market line | |
| MODEL ML | -294 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -380 | Won · +$0.34 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NE
Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
83°F
WIND
17 MPH
WINDY
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NE
Ezekiel Elliott
RB
174.5SEASON PPR
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB
145.7SEASON PPR
Hunter Henry
TE
119.9SEASON PPR
MIA
Tyreek Hill
WR
376.4SEASON PPR
Tua Tagovailoa
QB
270.4SEASON PPR
Raheem Mostert
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@NEW18 2025 | MIA 10, NE 38 | NE | W |
| NE@MIAW2 2025 | NE 33, MIA 27 | MIA | L |
| NE@MIAW12 2024 | NE 15, MIA 34 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NEW5 2024 | MIA 15, NE 10 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NEW2 2023 | MIA 24, NE 17 | MIA | W |
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES