Bengals vs 49ers – Week 8 2023
CIN
SF
CIN
AWAY
31@17
CIN BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 8
2023 SEASON
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
SF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cincinnati Bengals 31, San Francisco 49ers 17.
Going in, our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 65% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Bengals, 1 49ers.
Model confidence: SF 65%Our line: SF -5.1
ODDS
SPREAD
SF -4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SF -5.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
-0.044Net EPA / play+0.255
-0.010 (12)Offense EPA / play+0.174 (1)
+0.034 (28)Defense EPA / play-0.082 (7)
44.0% (10)Offense success %51.1% (1)
GAME NARRATIVE
SF B-tier pick misses. CIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SF but CIN won. Projected margin was 5.1, the model overestimated by 19.1 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 18.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
SF
Road Favorite 6-3 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
74°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
SF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@CINW14 2021 | SF 26, CIN 23 | CIN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs SF
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SF by 5.1. The market has SF at -4.0.
Cincinnati Bengals won, CIN 31, SF 17. Our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 65% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has San Francisco 49ers at -4.0, meaning the book expects San Francisco 49ers to win by 4.0 points.
In Week 8, the Cincinnati Bengals were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the San Francisco 49ers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.6, 1.6 above the market.
Week 8 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, SF 26, CIN 23 in Week 14 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, San Francisco 49ers: CIN -0.044 against SF +0.255.
