LV @ DET – Week 8 2023
LV
DET
LV
AWAY
14@26
DET BY 12
FINAL · WEEK 8
2023 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
Model confidence: DET 71%Our line: DET -7.5
DET
PICK SIDE
-7.0
MARKET SPREAD
-7.5
OUR LINE
-245
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.037Net EPA / play+0.093
-0.097Offense EPA / play+0.064
-0.060Defense EPA / play-0.029
41.2%Offense success %46.1%
43.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DET B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DET. Projected margin: 7.5. Actual: 12. Off by 4.5 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | LV | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +270 | -340 |
| Our fair price | +245 | -245 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DET -7.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.36
OUR NUMBER
71%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
74%
DIFFERENCE
-3%
Both figures are for DET. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
DET
Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
LV
Davante Adams
WR
265.4 SEASON PPR
Jakobi Meyers
WR
218.6 SEASON PPR
Josh Jacobs
RB
181.1 SEASON PPR
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
Aidan O'Connell2218 yd · 12 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
Josh Jacobs805 yd · 6 TD
Zamir White451 yd · 1 TD
Ameer Abdullah89 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Davante Adams103 rec · 1144 yd · 8 TD
Jakobi Meyers71 rec · 807 yd · 8 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs DET
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 71% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DET by 7.5. The market has DET at -7.0.
The model projects 46.0 combined points. The market total is 46.0.
Week 8 of the 2023 season, MON 8:15 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Detroit Lions: LV -0.037 against DET +0.093.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
