Raiders vs Lions – Week 8 2023
LV
DET
LV
AWAY
14@26
DET BY 12
FINAL · WEEK 8
2023 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Las Vegas Raiders 14, Detroit Lions 26.
Going in, our model had favored Detroit Lions at 71% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Raiders, 3 Lions.
Model confidence: DET 71%Our line: DET -7.5
ODDS
SPREAD
DET -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET -7.5
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
71%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
-0.037Net EPA / play+0.093
-0.097 (25)Offense EPA / play+0.064 (7)
-0.060 (9)Defense EPA / play-0.029 (17)
41.2% (19)Offense success %46.1% (6)
GAME NARRATIVE
DET B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DET. Projected margin: 7.5. Actual: 12. Off by 4.5 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
DET
Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
Aidan O'Connell2218 yd · 12 TD · 7 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs DET
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 71% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DET by 7.5. The market has DET at -7.0.
Detroit Lions won, LV 14, DET 26. Our model had favored Detroit Lions at 71% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Detroit Lions at -7.0, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 8, the Las Vegas Raiders were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Detroit Lions were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.0, 0.0 above the market.
Week 8 of the 2023 season, MON 8:15 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Detroit Lions: LV -0.037 against DET +0.093.
