Chiefs vs Broncos – Week 8 2023
KC
DEN
KC
AWAY
9@24
DEN BY 15
FINAL · WEEK 8
2023 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Kansas City Chiefs 9, Denver Broncos 24.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 81% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Chiefs.
Model confidence: KC 81%Our line: KC -11.9
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -11.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
+0.107Net EPA / play-0.077
+0.021 (10)Offense EPA / play-0.058 (20)
-0.086 (6)Defense EPA / play+0.019 (26)
43.7% (12)Offense success %42.1% (14)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC S-tier pick misses. DEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked KC but DEN won. Projected margin was 11.9, the model overestimated by 26.9 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 22.0 points.
COLD GAME
26°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
KC
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
DEN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
26°F
WIND
7 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@KCW1 2026 | DEN 10, KC 31 | DEN | L |
| DEN@KCW17 2025 | DEN 20, KC 13 | DEN | W |
| KC@DENW11 2025 | KC 19, DEN 22 | DEN | W |
| KC@DENW18 2024 | KC 0, DEN 38 | KC | L |
| DEN@KCW10 2024 | DEN 14, KC 16 | KC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs DEN
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 81% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project KC by 11.9. The market has KC at -7.0.
Denver Broncos won, KC 9, DEN 24. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 81% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -7.0, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 8, the Kansas City Chiefs were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.1, 0.6 above the market.
Week 8 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, DEN 10, KC 31 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Kansas City Chiefs: KC +0.107 against DEN -0.077.
