2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
KC @ DEN – Week 8 2023
KC
DEN
KC
AWAY
9@24
DEN +15
FINAL · WEEK 8
2023 SEASON
DEN
HOME
TIER S
PICK: KC
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: KC 81%Projected margin: -10.3
KC
PICK SIDE
-7.0
SPREAD
-10.3
PROJ MARGIN
-274
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC S-tier pick misses. DEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked KC but DEN won. Projected margin was 10.3 -- the model overestimated by 25.3 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 22.0 points.
COLD GAME
26°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.0 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -274 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -340 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
KC
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
DEN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
26°F
WIND
7 MPH
COLD GAME
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
KC
Patrick Mahomes
QB
280.2SEASON PPR
Travis Kelce
TE
219.4SEASON PPR
Isiah Pacheco
RB
213.9SEASON PPR
DEN
Russell Wilson
QB
256.9SEASON PPR
Courtland Sutton
WR
190.2SEASON PPR
Javonte Williams
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@KCW17 2025 | DEN 20, KC 13 | DEN | W |
| KC@DENW11 2025 | KC 19, DEN 22 | DEN | W |
| KC@DENW18 2024 | KC 0, DEN 38 | KC | L |
| DEN@KCW10 2024 | DEN 14, KC 16 | KC | W |
| DEN@KCW6 2023 | DEN 8, KC 19 | KC | W |
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES