Rams vs Cowboys – Week 8 2023
LA
DAL
LA
AWAY
20@43
DAL BY 23
FINAL · WEEK 8
2023 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Rams 20, Dallas Cowboys 43.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Rams.
Model confidence: DAL 72%Our line: DAL -7.8
ODDS
SPREAD
DAL -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DAL -7.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
72%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
+0.048Net EPA / play+0.220
+0.039 (9)Offense EPA / play+0.106 (3)
-0.009 (22)Defense EPA / play-0.114 (4)
44.7% (8)Offense success %47.4% (3)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DAL. Projected margin: 7.8. Actual: 23. Off by 15.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 16.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
DAL
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@LAW5 2022 | DAL 22, LA 10 | DAL | W |
| DAL@LAW1 2020 | DAL 17, LA 20 | LA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs DAL
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 72% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project DAL by 7.8. The market has DAL at -6.5.
Dallas Cowboys won, LA 20, DAL 43. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at -6.5, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 8, the Los Angeles Rams were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.3, 1.8 above the market.
Week 8 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Dallas Cowboys, DAL 22, LA 10 in Week 5 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Dallas Cowboys: LA +0.048 against DAL +0.220.
