CHI @ LAC – Week 8 2023
CHI
LAC
CHI
AWAY
13@30
LAC BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 8
2023 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
Model confidence: LAC 71%Our line: LAC -7.4
LAC
PICK SIDE
-9.5
MARKET SPREAD
-7.4
OUR LINE
-243
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.007Net EPA / play-0.088
-0.049Offense EPA / play-0.076
-0.042Defense EPA / play+0.012
41.8%Offense success %41.0%
41.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LAC. Projected margin: 7.4. Actual: 17. Off by 9.6 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CHI | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +340 | -440 |
| Our fair price | +243 | -243 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD LAC -9.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.26
OUR NUMBER
71%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
78%
DIFFERENCE
-7%
Both figures are for LAC. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
No noteworthy trends
LAC
Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CHI
DJ Moore
WR
286.5 SEASON PPR
Justin Fields
QB
230.2 SEASON PPR
Cole Kmet
TE
181.1 SEASON PPR
LAC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Chicago BearsPASSING
Justin Fields2562 yd · 16 TD · 9 INT
RUSHING
Justin Fields657 yd · 4 TD
Khalil Herbert611 yd · 2 TD
D'Onta Foreman425 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
DJ Moore96 rec · 1364 yd · 8 TD
Cole Kmet73 rec · 719 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs LAC
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 71% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LAC by 7.4. The market has LAC at -9.5.
The model projects 45.6 combined points. The market total is 46.0.
Week 8 of the 2023 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Chicago Bears: CHI -0.007 against LAC -0.088.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
