Bears vs Chargers – Week 8 2023
CHI
LAC
CHI
AWAY
13@30
LAC BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 8
2023 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Chicago Bears 13, Los Angeles Chargers 30.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 71% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Bears.
Model confidence: LAC 71%Our line: LAC -7.4
ODDS
SPREAD
LAC -9.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LAC -7.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LAC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
71%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
-0.007Net EPA / play-0.088
-0.049 (19)Offense EPA / play-0.076 (24)
-0.042 (14)Defense EPA / play+0.012 (25)
41.8% (18)Offense success %41.0% (22)
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LAC. Projected margin: 7.4. Actual: 17. Off by 9.6 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
No noteworthy trends
LAC
Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
LAC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs LAC
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 71% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LAC by 7.4. The market has LAC at -9.5.
Los Angeles Chargers won, CHI 13, LAC 30. Our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 71% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Chargers at -9.5, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Chargers to win by 9.5 points.
In Week 8, the Chicago Bears were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.6, 0.4 below the market.
Week 8 of the 2023 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Chicago Bears: CHI -0.007 against LAC -0.088.
