CLE @ SEA – Week 8 2023
CLE
SEA
CLE
AWAY
20@24
SEA BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 8
2023 SEASON
Lumen Field · Seattle, WA
SEA
HOME
Model confidence: SEA 65%Our line: SEA -5.1
SEA
PICK SIDE
-4.0
MARKET SPREAD
-5.1
OUR LINE
-183
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
PUSH
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.045Net EPA / play-0.035
-0.141Offense EPA / play+0.016
-0.186Defense EPA / play+0.051
38.9%Offense success %43.9%
35.1%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected SEA by 5.1. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 1.1 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (-4.0). Push, no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CLE | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +164 | -198 |
| Our fair price | +183 | -183 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD SEA -4.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.56
OUR NUMBER
65%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
64%
DIFFERENCE
+1%
Both figures are for SEA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
47°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CLE
Amari Cooper
WR
227.0 SEASON PPR
Jerome Ford
RB
211.2 SEASON PPR
David Njoku
TE
201.2 SEASON PPR
SEA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cleveland BrownsPASSING
Joe Flacco1616 yd · 13 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
Jerome Ford813 yd · 4 TD
Kareem Hunt411 yd · 9 TD
Pierre Strong291 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Amari Cooper72 rec · 1250 yd · 5 TD
David Njoku81 rec · 882 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs SEA
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SEA by 5.1. The market has SEA at -4.0.
The model projects 46.1 combined points. The market total is 39.5.
Week 8 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Cleveland Browns: CLE +0.045 against SEA -0.035.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
