Ravens vs Cardinals – Week 8 2023
BAL
ARI
BAL
AWAY
31@24
BAL BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 8
2023 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Baltimore Ravens 31, Arizona Cardinals 24.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 75% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Ravens, 4 Cardinals.
Model confidence: BAL 75%Our line: BAL -8.9
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -9.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -8.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
+0.215Net EPA / play-0.157
+0.066 (5)Offense EPA / play-0.071 (22)
-0.149 (2)Defense EPA / play+0.085 (32)
47.4% (3)Offense success %40.5% (25)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected BAL by 8.9. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 1.9 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
Road Favorite 4-2 ATS (67%)
ARI
Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
ARI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs ARI
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 75% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project BAL by 8.9. The market has BAL at -9.5.
Baltimore Ravens won, BAL 31, ARI 24. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 75% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -9.5, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 9.5 points.
In Week 8, the Baltimore Ravens were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Arizona Cardinals were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.5, 1.0 above the market.
Week 8 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Baltimore Ravens: BAL +0.215 against ARI -0.157.
