BAL @ ARI – Week 8 2023
BAL
ARI
BAL
AWAY
31@24
BAL BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 8
2023 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
Model confidence: BAL 75%Our line: BAL -8.9
BAL
PICK SIDE
-9.5
MARKET SPREAD
-8.9
OUR LINE
-293
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.215Net EPA / play-0.157
+0.066Offense EPA / play-0.071
-0.149Defense EPA / play+0.085
47.4%Offense success %40.5%
40.1%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected BAL by 8.9. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 1.9 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | BAL | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -500 | +380 |
| Our fair price | -293 | +293 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BAL -9.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.26
OUR NUMBER
75%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
80%
DIFFERENCE
-5%
Both figures are for BAL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
Road Favorite 4-2 ATS (67%)
ARI
Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
BAL
Lamar Jackson
QB
331.2 SEASON PPR
Zay Flowers
WR
206.4 SEASON PPR
Gus Edwards
RB
187.0 SEASON PPR
ARI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Baltimore RavensPASSING
Lamar Jackson3678 yd · 24 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
Lamar Jackson821 yd · 5 TD
Gus Edwards810 yd · 13 TD
Keaton Mitchell396 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Zay Flowers77 rec · 858 yd · 5 TD
Odell Beckham Jr.35 rec · 565 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs ARI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 75% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project BAL by 8.9. The market has BAL at -9.5.
The model projects 45.5 combined points. The market total is 44.5.
Week 8 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Baltimore Ravens: BAL +0.215 against ARI -0.157.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
