HOU @ CAR – Week 8 2023
HOU
CAR
HOU
AWAY
13@15
CAR BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 8
2023 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
Model confidence: HOU 62%Our line: HOU -4.2
HOU
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-4.2
OUR LINE
-165
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.014Net EPA / play-0.200
-0.028Offense EPA / play-0.177
-0.043Defense EPA / play+0.023
40.9%Offense success %37.6%
40.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU C-tier pick misses. CAR takes it.
MISSED
Model picked HOU but CAR won. Projected margin was 4.2, the model overestimated by 6.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | HOU | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -162 | +136 |
| Our fair price | -165 | +165 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD HOU -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
62%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
59%
DIFFERENCE
+3%
Both figures are for HOU. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
CAR
Divisional 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
77°F
WIND
14 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
HOU
C.J. Stroud
QB
276.0 SEASON PPR
Nico Collins
WR
260.4 SEASON PPR
Devin Singletary
RB
167.3 SEASON PPR
CAR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Houston TexansPASSING
C.J. Stroud4108 yd · 23 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
Devin Singletary898 yd · 4 TD
Dameon Pierce416 yd · 2 TD
C.J. Stroud167 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Nico Collins80 rec · 1297 yd · 8 TD
Tank Dell47 rec · 709 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@HOUW3 2021 | CAR 24, HOU 9 | CAR | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs CAR
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Houston Texans at 62% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project HOU by 4.2. The market has HOU at -3.0.
The model projects 44.4 combined points. The market total is 43.0.
Week 8 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Carolina Panthers, CAR 24, HOU 9 in Week 3 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Houston Texans: HOU +0.014 against CAR -0.200.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
