Texans vs Panthers – Week 8 2023
HOU
CAR
HOU
AWAY
13@15
CAR BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 8
2023 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Houston Texans 13, Carolina Panthers 15.
Going in, our model had favored Houston Texans at 62% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Texans, 2 Panthers.
Model confidence: HOU 62%Our line: HOU -4.2
ODDS
SPREAD
HOU -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
HOU -4.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
HOU · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
+0.014Net EPA / play-0.200
-0.028 (15)Offense EPA / play-0.177 (30)
-0.043 (13)Defense EPA / play+0.023 (27)
40.9% (23)Offense success %37.6% (31)
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU C-tier pick misses. CAR takes it.
MISSED
Model picked HOU but CAR won. Projected margin was 4.2, the model overestimated by 6.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
CAR
Divisional 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
77°F
WIND
14 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@HOUW3 2021 | CAR 24, HOU 9 | CAR | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs CAR
Our model takes Houston Texans at 62% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project HOU by 4.2. The market has HOU at -3.0.
Carolina Panthers won, HOU 13, CAR 15. Our model had favored Houston Texans at 62% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Houston Texans at -3.0, meaning the book expects Houston Texans to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 8, the Houston Texans were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Carolina Panthers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.4, 1.4 above the market.
Week 8 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Carolina Panthers, CAR 24, HOU 9 in Week 3 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Houston Texans: HOU +0.014 against CAR -0.200.
