Panthers vs Texans – Week 3 2021
CAR
HOU
CAR
AWAY
24@9
CAR BY 15
FINAL · WEEK 3
2021 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Carolina Panthers 24, Houston Texans 9.
Going in, our model had favored Carolina Panthers at 57% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Panthers, 3 Texans.
Model confidence: CAR 57%Our line: CAR -2.3
ODDS
SPREAD
CAR -8.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CAR -2.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CAR · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
57%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
-0.093Net EPA / play-0.212
-0.138 (30)Offense EPA / play-0.138 (31)
-0.044 (7)Defense EPA / play+0.074 (28)
40.9% (27)Offense success %37.4% (32)
GAME NARRATIVE
CAR B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CAR. Projected margin: 2.3. Actual: 15. Off by 12.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CAR
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
HOU
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@CARW8 2023 | HOU 13, CAR 15 | HOU | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs HOU
Our model takes Carolina Panthers at 57% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CAR by 2.3. The market has CAR at -8.0.
Carolina Panthers won, CAR 24, HOU 9. Our model had favored Carolina Panthers at 57% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Carolina Panthers at -8.0, meaning the book expects Carolina Panthers to win by 8.0 points.
In Week 3, the Carolina Panthers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Houston Texans were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.1, 5.1 above the market.
Week 3 of the 2021 season, THU 8:20 PM.
Carolina Panthers, HOU 13, CAR 15 in Week 8 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Carolina Panthers: CAR -0.093 against HOU -0.212.
