2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CAR @ HOU – Week 3 2021
CAR
HOU
CAR
AWAY
24@9
CAR +15
FINAL · WEEK 3
2021 SEASON
HOU
HOME
TIER B
PICK: CAR
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: CAR 57%Projected margin: -4.3
CAR
PICK SIDE
-8.0
SPREAD
-4.3
PROJ MARGIN
-316
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
CAR B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CAR. Projected margin: 4.3. Actual: 15. Off by 10.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -8.0 | CAR market line | |
| MODEL ML | -316 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -420 | Won · +$0.32 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CAR
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
CAR
DJ Moore
WR
237.5SEASON PPR
Sam Darnold
QB
157.3SEASON PPR
Robbie Chosen
WR
138.5SEASON PPR
HOU
Brandin Cooks
WR
231.8SEASON PPR
Davis Mills
QB
157.0SEASON PPR
Rex Burkhead
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@CARW8 2023 | HOU 13, CAR 15 | HOU | L |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES