CAR @ HOU – Week 3 2021
CAR
HOU
CAR
AWAY
24@9
CAR BY 15
FINAL · WEEK 3
2021 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
Model confidence: CAR 57%Our line: CAR -2.3
CAR
PICK SIDE
-8.0
MARKET SPREAD
-2.3
OUR LINE
-131
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.093Net EPA / play-0.212
-0.138Offense EPA / play-0.138
-0.044Defense EPA / play+0.074
40.9%Offense success %37.4%
40.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CAR B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CAR. Projected margin: 2.3. Actual: 15. Off by 12.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CAR | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -420 | +348 |
| Our fair price | -131 | +131 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CAR -8.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.32
OUR NUMBER
57%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
78%
DIFFERENCE
-22%
Both figures are for CAR. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CAR
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
CAR
DJ Moore
WR
237.5 SEASON PPR
Sam Darnold
QB
157.3 SEASON PPR
Robbie Chosen
WR
138.5 SEASON PPR
HOU
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Carolina PanthersPASSING
Sam Darnold2527 yd · 9 TD · 13 INT
RUSHING
Chuba Hubbard612 yd · 5 TD
Christian McCaffrey442 yd · 1 TD
Cam Newton230 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
DJ Moore93 rec · 1157 yd · 4 TD
Robbie Chosen53 rec · 519 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@CARW8 2023 | HOU 13, CAR 15 | HOU | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs HOU
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Carolina Panthers at 57% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CAR by 2.3. The market has CAR at -8.0.
The model projects 48.1 combined points. The market total is 43.0.
Week 3 of the 2021 season, THU 8:20 PM.
Carolina Panthers, HOU 13, CAR 15 in Week 8 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Carolina Panthers: CAR -0.093 against HOU -0.212.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
