2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
ATL @ NYG – Week 3 2021
ATL
NYG
ATL
AWAY
17@14
ATL +3
FINAL · WEEK 3
2021 SEASON
NYG
HOME
TIER B
PICK: NYG
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: NYG 54%Projected margin: 1.4
NYG
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
1.4
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
NYG B-tier pick misses. ATL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NYG but ATL won. Projected margin was 1.4 -- the model overestimated by 4.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | NYG market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -143 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
NYG
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
69°F
WIND
13 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
ATL
Cordarrelle Patterson
RB
234.6SEASON PPR
Matt Ryan
QB
222.9SEASON PPR
Kyle Pitts
TE
176.6SEASON PPR
NYG
Daniel Jones
QB
167.5SEASON PPR
Saquon Barkley
RB
148.6SEASON PPR
Devontae Booker
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@ATLW16 2024 | NYG 7, ATL 34 | ATL | W |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES