Falcons vs Giants – Week 3 2021
ATL
NYG
ATL
AWAY
17@14
ATL BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 3
2021 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYG
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Atlanta Falcons 17, New York Giants 14.
Going in, our model had favored New York Giants at 54% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Falcons, 1 Giants.
Model confidence: NYG 54%Our line: NYG -1.4
ODDS
SPREAD
NYG -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NYG -1.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NYG · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
54%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
-0.180Net EPA / play-0.192
-0.098 (28)Offense EPA / play-0.161 (32)
+0.082 (29)Defense EPA / play+0.031 (23)
40.4% (29)Offense success %39.3% (30)
GAME NARRATIVE
NYG B-tier pick misses. ATL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NYG but ATL won. Projected margin was 1.4, the model overestimated by 4.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
NYG
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
69°F
WIND
13 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
NYG
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Atlanta FalconsPASSING
Matt Ryan3968 yd · 20 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Cordarrelle Patterson618 yd · 6 TD
Mike Davis503 yd · 3 TD
Qadree Ollison105 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Kyle Pitts68 rec · 1026 yd · 1 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@ATLW16 2024 | NYG 7, ATL 34 | ATL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs NYG
Our model takes New York Giants at 54% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NYG by 1.4. The market has NYG at -3.0.
Atlanta Falcons won, ATL 17, NYG 14. Our model had favored New York Giants at 54% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has New York Giants at -3.0, meaning the book expects New York Giants to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 3, the Atlanta Falcons were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Giants were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 49.3, 1.3 above the market.
Week 3 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, NYG 7, ATL 34 in Week 16 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Atlanta Falcons: ATL -0.180 against NYG -0.192.
