ATL @ NYG – Week 3 2021
ATL
NYG
ATL
AWAY
17@14
ATL BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 3
2021 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYG
HOME
Model confidence: NYG 54%Our line: NYG -1.4
NYG
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-1.4
OUR LINE
-118
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.180Net EPA / play-0.192
-0.098Offense EPA / play-0.161
+0.082Defense EPA / play+0.031
40.4%Offense success %39.3%
48.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
NYG B-tier pick misses. ATL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NYG but ATL won. Projected margin was 1.4, the model overestimated by 4.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | ATL | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +129 | -143 |
| Our fair price | +118 | -118 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD NYG -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
54%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
57%
DIFFERENCE
-3%
Both figures are for NYG. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
NYG
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
69°F
WIND
13 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
ATL
Cordarrelle Patterson
RB
234.6 SEASON PPR
Matt Ryan
QB
222.9 SEASON PPR
Kyle Pitts
TE
176.6 SEASON PPR
NYG
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Atlanta FalconsPASSING
Matt Ryan3968 yd · 20 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Cordarrelle Patterson618 yd · 6 TD
Mike Davis503 yd · 3 TD
Qadree Ollison105 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Kyle Pitts68 rec · 1026 yd · 1 TD
Russell Gage66 rec · 770 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@ATLW16 2024 | NYG 7, ATL 34 | ATL | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs NYG
QUESTIONS
Our model takes New York Giants at 54% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NYG by 1.4. The market has NYG at -3.0.
The model projects 49.3 combined points. The market total is 48.0.
Week 3 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, NYG 7, ATL 34 in Week 16 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Atlanta Falcons: ATL -0.180 against NYG -0.192.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
