Bengals vs Steelers – Week 3 2021
CIN
PIT
CIN
AWAY
24@10
CIN BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 3
2021 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cincinnati Bengals 24, Pittsburgh Steelers 10.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Bengals, 3 Steelers.
Model confidence: PIT 61%Our line: PIT -3.8
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -3.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
+0.069Net EPA / play-0.090
+0.057 (12)Offense EPA / play-0.074 (25)
-0.012 (13)Defense EPA / play+0.016 (19)
44.2% (17)Offense success %39.1% (31)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT B-tier pick misses. CIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PIT but CIN won. Projected margin was 3.8, the model overestimated by 17.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 16.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
67°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
PIT
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@PITW3 2026 | CIN 27, PIT 30 | PIT | W |
| CIN@PITW11 2025 | CIN 12, PIT 34 | PIT | W |
| PIT@CINW7 2025 | PIT 31, CIN 33 | PIT | L |
| CIN@PITW18 2024 | CIN 19, PIT 17 | PIT | L |
| PIT@CINW13 2024 | PIT 44, CIN 38 | PIT | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs PIT
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PIT by 3.8. The market has PIT at -2.5.
Cincinnati Bengals won, CIN 24, PIT 10. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at -2.5, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 3, the Cincinnati Bengals were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.3, 4.8 above the market.
Week 3 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, CIN 27, PIT 30 in Week 3 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Cincinnati Bengals: CIN +0.069 against PIT -0.090.
