2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CIN @ PIT – Week 3 2021
CIN
PIT
CIN
AWAY
24@10
CIN +14
FINAL · WEEK 3
2021 SEASON
PIT
HOME
TIER B
PICK: PIT
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: PIT 61%Projected margin: 4.1
PIT
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
4.1
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT B-tier pick misses. CIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PIT but CIN won. Projected margin was 4.1 -- the model overestimated by 18.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 16.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | PIT market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -140 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CIN
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
67°F
WIND
9 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
CIN
Joe Burrow
QB
314.2SEASON PPR
Ja'Marr Chase
WR
304.6SEASON PPR
Joe Mixon
RB
287.9SEASON PPR
PIT
Najee Harris
RB
300.7SEASON PPR
Diontae Johnson
WR
274.4SEASON PPR
Ben Roethlisberger
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@PITW11 2025 | CIN 12, PIT 34 | PIT | W |
| PIT@CINW7 2025 | PIT 31, CIN 33 | PIT | L |
| CIN@PITW18 2024 | CIN 19, PIT 17 | PIT | L |
| PIT@CINW13 2024 | PIT 44, CIN 38 | PIT | W |
| CIN@PITW16 2023 | CIN 11, PIT 34 | CIN | L |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES