Eagles vs Cowboys – Week 3 2021
PHI
DAL
PHI
AWAY
21@41
DAL BY 20
FINAL · WEEK 3
2021 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Philadelphia Eagles 21, Dallas Cowboys 41.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 54% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Eagles, 4 Cowboys.
Model confidence: DAL 54%Our line: DAL -1.5
ODDS
SPREAD
DAL -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DAL -1.5
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
54%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
+0.059Net EPA / play+0.187
+0.070 (10)Offense EPA / play+0.096 (5)
+0.011 (17)Defense EPA / play-0.091 (3)
46.9% (8)Offense success %47.0% (7)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DAL. Projected margin: 1.5. Actual: 20. Off by 18.5 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 16.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
DAL
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Road Favorite 5-0 ATS (100%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
RETRACTABLE
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@DALW12 2025 | PHI 21, DAL 24 | PHI | L |
| DAL@PHIW1 2025 | DAL 20, PHI 24 | PHI | W |
| DAL@PHIW17 2024 | DAL 7, PHI 41 | PHI | W |
| PHI@DALW10 2024 | PHI 34, DAL 6 | PHI | W |
| PHI@DALW14 2023 | PHI 13, DAL 33 | DAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs DAL
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 54% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DAL by 1.5. The market has DAL at -3.5.
Dallas Cowboys won, PHI 21, DAL 41. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 54% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at -3.5, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 3, the Philadelphia Eagles were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Dallas Cowboys were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 51.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.7, 3.8 below the market.
Week 3 of the 2021 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Dallas Cowboys, PHI 21, DAL 24 in Week 12 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Dallas Cowboys: PHI +0.059 against DAL +0.187.
