MIA @ LV – Week 3 2021
MIA
LV
MIA
AWAY
28@31
LV BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 3
2021 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
Model confidence: LV 52%Our line: LV -0.6
LV
PICK SIDE
-4.0
MARKET SPREAD
-0.6
OUR LINE
-107
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.031Net EPA / play-0.064
-0.059Offense EPA / play-0.019
-0.028Defense EPA / play+0.045
41.3%Offense success %44.9%
42.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
LV C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected LV by 0.6. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 2.4 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.0 point, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | MIA | LV |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +173 | -194 |
| Our fair price | +107 | -107 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD LV -4.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.56
OUR NUMBER
52%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
64%
DIFFERENCE
-13%
Both figures are for LV. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
LV
Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
MIA
Jaylen Waddle
WR
247.8 SEASON PPR
Tua Tagovailoa
QB
180.9 SEASON PPR
Myles Gaskin
RB
173.6 SEASON PPR
LV
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
Tua Tagovailoa2653 yd · 16 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Myles Gaskin612 yd · 3 TD
Duke Johnson330 yd · 3 TD
Salvon Ahmed149 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Jaylen Waddle104 rec · 1015 yd · 6 TD
Mike Gesicki73 rec · 780 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@MIAW11 2024 | LV 19, MIA 34 | MIA | W |
| LV@MIAW11 2023 | LV 13, MIA 20 | MIA | W |
| MIA@LVW16 2020 | MIA 26, LV 25 | MIA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs LV
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Las Vegas Raiders at 52% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LV by 0.6. The market has LV at -4.0.
The model projects 49.3 combined points. The market total is 45.0.
Week 3 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Miami Dolphins, LV 19, MIA 34 in Week 11 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Miami Dolphins: MIA -0.031 against LV -0.064.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
