Dolphins vs Raiders – Week 3 2021
MIA
LV
MIA
AWAY
28@31
LV BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 3
2021 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Miami Dolphins 28, Las Vegas Raiders 31.
Going in, our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 52% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Dolphins, 4 Raiders.
Model confidence: LV 52%Our line: LV -0.6
ODDS
SPREAD
LV -4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LV -0.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LV · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
52%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
-0.031Net EPA / play-0.064
-0.059 (22)Offense EPA / play-0.019 (20)
-0.028 (10)Defense EPA / play+0.045 (25)
41.3% (25)Offense success %44.9% (13)
GAME NARRATIVE
LV C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected LV by 0.6. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 2.4 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.0 point, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
LV
Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
LV
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
Tua Tagovailoa2653 yd · 16 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Myles Gaskin612 yd · 3 TD
Duke Johnson330 yd · 3 TD
Salvon Ahmed149 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@LVW1 2026 | MIA 13, LV 27 | MIA | L |
| LV@MIAW11 2024 | LV 19, MIA 34 | MIA | W |
| LV@MIAW11 2023 | LV 13, MIA 20 | MIA | W |
| MIA@LVW16 2020 | MIA 26, LV 25 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs LV
Our model takes Las Vegas Raiders at 52% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LV by 0.6. The market has LV at -4.0.
Las Vegas Raiders won, MIA 28, LV 31. Our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 52% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Las Vegas Raiders at -4.0, meaning the book expects Las Vegas Raiders to win by 4.0 points.
In Week 3, the Miami Dolphins were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Las Vegas Raiders were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 49.3, 4.3 above the market.
Week 3 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Las Vegas Raiders, MIA 13, LV 27 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Miami Dolphins: MIA -0.031 against LV -0.064.
