2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NO @ NE – Week 3 2021
NO
NE
NO
AWAY
28@13
NO +15
FINAL · WEEK 3
2021 SEASON
NE
HOME
TIER B
PICK: NO
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: NO 58%Projected margin: -4.7
NO
PICK SIDE
+3.0
SPREAD
-4.7
PROJ MARGIN
+154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
NO B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NO. Projected margin: 4.7. Actual: 15. Off by 10.3 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 18.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +3.0 | NO market line | |
| MODEL ML | +154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +130 | Won · +$1.54 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
NE
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
73°F
WIND
11 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
NO
Alvin Kamara
RB
234.7SEASON PPR
Marquez Callaway
WR
151.8SEASON PPR
Taysom Hill
TE
121.7SEASON PPR
NE
Mac Jones
QB
224.9SEASON PPR
Damien Harris
RB
210.1SEASON PPR
Jakobi Meyers
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@NOW6 2025 | NE 25, NO 19 | NO | L |
| NO@NEW5 2023 | NO 34, NE 0 | NE | L |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES