2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TB @ LA – Week 3 2021
TB
LA
TB
AWAY
24@34
LA +10
FINAL · WEEK 3
2021 SEASON
LA
HOME
TIER C
PICK: LA
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: LA 51%Projected margin: -0.7
LA
PICK SIDE
+1.0
SPREAD
-0.7
PROJ MARGIN
+115
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LA C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LA. Projected margin: 0.7. Actual: 10. Off by 10.7 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +1.0 | LA market line | |
| MODEL ML | +115 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -106 | Won · +$1.15 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-6 ATS (33%)
LA
Road Favorite 3-5 ATS (38%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
TB
Tom Brady
QB
374.7SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
262.5SEASON PPR
Leonard Fournette
RB
255.6SEASON PPR
LA
Cooper Kupp
WR
439.5SEASON PPR
Matthew Stafford
QB
329.7SEASON PPR
Van Jefferson
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@LAW12 2025 | TB 7, LA 34 | LA | W |
| LA@TBW9 2022 | LA 13, TB 16 | TB | W |
| LA@TBW11 2020 | LA 27, TB 24 | TB | L |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES