Buccaneers vs Rams – Week 3 2021
TB
LA
TB
AWAY
24@34
LA BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 3
2021 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24, Los Angeles Rams 34.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 51% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Buccaneers.
Model confidence: LA 51%Our line: LA -0.4
ODDS
SPREAD
LA +1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LA -0.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
51%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
+0.217Net EPA / play+0.102
+0.137 (2)Offense EPA / play+0.077 (8)
-0.080 (4)Defense EPA / play-0.025 (11)
49.4% (2)Offense success %46.4% (11)
GAME NARRATIVE
LA C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LA. Projected margin: 0.4. Actual: 10. Off by 9.6 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-6 ATS (33%)
LA
Road Favorite 3-5 ATS (38%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
TB
Tom Brady
QB
374.7 SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
262.5 SEASON PPR
Leonard Fournette
RB
255.6 SEASON PPR
LA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tampa Bay BuccaneersPASSING
Tom Brady5316 yd · 43 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Leonard Fournette812 yd · 8 TD
Ronald Jones428 yd · 4 TD
Ke'Shawn Vaughn180 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Chris Godwin Jr.98 rec · 1103 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@LAW12 2025 | TB 7, LA 34 | LA | W |
| LA@TBW9 2022 | LA 13, TB 16 | TB | W |
| LA@TBW11 2020 | LA 27, TB 24 | TB | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs LA
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 51% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LA by 0.4. The market has LA at +1.0.
Los Angeles Rams won, TB 24, LA 34. Our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 51% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Rams at +1.0, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Rams to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 3, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 55.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.4, 7.6 below the market.
Week 3 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Los Angeles Rams, TB 7, LA 34 in Week 12 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: TB +0.217 against LA +0.102.
