Rams vs Buccaneers – Week 9 2022
LA
TB
LA
AWAY
13@16
TB BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 9
2022 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Rams 13, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 57% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Rams, 4 Buccaneers.
Model confidence: TB 57%Our line: TB -2.3
ODDS
SPREAD
TB -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -2.3
OUR LINE
PUSH
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
57%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
-0.105Net EPA / play-0.013
-0.088 (29)Offense EPA / play-0.038 (21)
+0.017 (24)Defense EPA / play-0.025 (12)
41.0% (23)Offense success %43.8% (20)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected TB by 2.3. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.7 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (-3.0). Push, no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LA
Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
88°F
WIND
2 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
TB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@LAW12 2025 | TB 7, LA 34 | LA | W |
| TB@LAW3 2021 | TB 24, LA 34 | LA | W |
| LA@TBW11 2020 | LA 27, TB 24 | TB | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs TB
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 57% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project TB by 2.3. The market has TB at -3.0.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won, LA 13, TB 16. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 57% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -3.0, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 9, the Los Angeles Rams were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.8, 4.8 above the market.
Week 9 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Los Angeles Rams, TB 7, LA 34 in Week 12 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: LA -0.105 against TB -0.013.
