2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LA @ TB – Week 9 2022
LA
TB
LA
AWAY
13@16
TB +3
FINAL · WEEK 9
2022 SEASON
TB
HOME
TIER C
PICK: TB
PICK WONATS PUSH
Model confidence: TB 57%Projected margin: 0.5
TB
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
0.5
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
PUSH
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected TB by 0.5. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 2.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (+3.0). Push -- no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -158 | Won · +$0.65 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LA
Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
88°F
WIND
2 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
LA
Cooper Kupp
WR
201.4SEASON PPR
Tyler Higbee
TE
152.0SEASON PPR
Cam Akers
RB
141.3SEASON PPR
TB
Tom Brady
QB
271.7SEASON PPR
Leonard Fournette
RB
226.1SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@LAW12 2025 | TB 7, LA 34 | LA | W |
| TB@LAW3 2021 | TB 24, LA 34 | LA | W |
| LA@TBW11 2020 | LA 27, TB 24 | TB | L |
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES