Ravens vs Saints – Week 9 2022
BAL
NO
BAL
AWAY
27@13
BAL BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 9
2022 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Baltimore Ravens 27, New Orleans Saints 13.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Ravens, 3 Saints.
Model confidence: BAL 58%Our line: BAL -2.6
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -2.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
+0.019Net EPA / play+0.018
+0.004 (15)Offense EPA / play-0.038 (21)
-0.014 (15)Defense EPA / play-0.056 (6)
45.3% (11)Offense success %45.7% (8)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 2.6. Actual: 14. Off by 11.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 13.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)
NO
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
NO
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@BALW2 2026 | NO 24, BAL 17 | BAL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs NO
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 58% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project BAL by 2.6. The market has BAL at -1.0.
Baltimore Ravens won, BAL 27, NO 13. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -1.0, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 9, the Baltimore Ravens were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New Orleans Saints were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.0, 1.0 above the market.
Week 9 of the 2022 season, MON 8:15 PM.
New Orleans Saints, NO 24, BAL 17 in Week 2 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Baltimore Ravens: BAL +0.019 against NO +0.018.
