BAL @ NO – Week 9 2022
BAL
NO
BAL
AWAY
27@13
BAL BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 9
2022 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
Model confidence: BAL 58%Our line: BAL -2.6
BAL
PICK SIDE
-1.0
MARKET SPREAD
-2.6
OUR LINE
-136
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.019Net EPA / play+0.018
+0.004Offense EPA / play-0.038
-0.014Defense EPA / play-0.056
45.3%Offense success %45.7%
43.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 2.6. Actual: 14. Off by 11.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 13.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | BAL | NO |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -124 | +112 |
| Our fair price | -136 | +136 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BAL -1.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.87
OUR NUMBER
58%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
54%
DIFFERENCE
+4%
Both figures are for BAL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)
NO
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
BAL
Lamar Jackson
QB
236.1 SEASON PPR
Mark Andrews
TE
190.5 SEASON PPR
Devin Duvernay
WR
116.1 SEASON PPR
NO
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Baltimore RavensPASSING
Lamar Jackson2242 yd · 17 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
Lamar Jackson764 yd · 3 TD
J.K. Dobbins520 yd · 2 TD
Kenyan Drake482 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
Mark Andrews73 rec · 847 yd · 5 TD
Demarcus Robinson48 rec · 458 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs NO
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 58% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project BAL by 2.6. The market has BAL at -1.0.
The model projects 47.0 combined points. The market total is 46.0.
Week 9 of the 2022 season, MON 8:15 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Baltimore Ravens: BAL +0.019 against NO +0.018.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
