Bills vs Jets – Week 9 2022
BUF
NYJ
BUF
AWAY
17@20
NYJ BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 9
2022 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Buffalo Bills 17, New York Jets 20.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 72% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Bills, 1 Jets.
Model confidence: BUF 72%Our line: BUF -7.8
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -11.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -7.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
72%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
+0.168Net EPA / play-0.036
+0.116 (2)Offense EPA / play-0.087 (27)
-0.052 (7)Defense EPA / play-0.051 (8)
49.0% (2)Offense success %39.0% (30)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF A-tier pick misses. NYJ takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BUF but NYJ won. Projected margin was 7.8, the model overestimated by 10.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 12 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 14.0 points.
HIGH WIND
17 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
NYJ
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
69°F
WIND
17 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@BUFW18 2025 | NYJ 8, BUF 35 | BUF | W |
| BUF@NYJW2 2025 | BUF 30, NYJ 10 | BUF | W |
| NYJ@BUFW17 2024 | NYJ 14, BUF 40 | BUF | W |
| BUF@NYJW6 2024 | BUF 23, NYJ 20 | BUF | W |
| NYJ@BUFW11 2023 | NYJ 6, BUF 32 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs NYJ
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 72% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project BUF by 7.8. The market has BUF at -11.0.
New York Jets won, BUF 17, NYJ 20. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 72% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -11.0, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 11.0 points.
In Week 9, the Buffalo Bills were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Jets were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.9, 0.9 above the market.
Week 9 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Buffalo Bills, NYJ 8, BUF 35 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.168 against NYJ -0.036.
