Bills vs Jets – Week 10 2026
BUF
NYJ
BUF
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 10 · 2026 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Bills over the Jets at 76% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: BUF 76%Our line: BUF -9.5
80% range around our line: NYJ by 8 to BUF by 27. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the BUF game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -9.5
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
76%
BUF · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
75%
DIFFERENCE
+1%
| SPORTSBOOK | BUF | NYJ | BUF WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 10 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
+0.077Net EPA / play+0.037
+0.210 (1)Offense EPA / play-0.025 (20)
+0.134 (30)Defense EPA / play-0.062 (5)
49.1% (3)Offense success %42.8% (16)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: model favors BUF at 76%.
H2H EDGE
BUF has won 5 of the last 5 meetings against NYJ.
RED ZONE
BUF converts 71% in the red zone vs 40% for NYJ. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
DRIVE EFF
BUF scores 2.7 points per drive vs 1.3 for NYJ. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 9.5-point margin.
Multiple signals align in BUF's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@BUFW18 2025 | NYJ 8, BUF 35 | BUF | W |
| BUF@NYJW2 2025 | BUF 30, NYJ 10 | BUF | W |
| NYJ@BUFW17 2024 | NYJ 14, BUF 40 | BUF | W |
| BUF@NYJW6 2024 | BUF 23, NYJ 20 | BUF | W |
| NYJ@BUFW11 2023 | NYJ 6, BUF 32 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs NYJ
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 76% win probability. The margin models project BUF by 9.5. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Buffalo Bills at 76% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 10 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Buffalo Bills, NYJ 8, BUF 35 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.077 against NYJ +0.037.
