BUF @ NYJ – Week 10 2026
BUF
NYJ
BUF
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 10 · 2026 SEASON
NYJ
HOME
Model confidence: BUF 80%Projected margin: -9.1
BUF
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-9.1
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.152Net EPA / play-0.274
+0.136Offense EPA / play-0.127
-0.016Defense EPA / play+0.147
48.5%Offense success %40.7%
42.4%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: BUF at 80%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
BUF generates 0.136 EPA/play on offense. NYJ's defense allows 0.147. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
AGGRESSIVE 4TH
BUF goes for it on 4th down 32% of the time -- among the most aggressive in the NFL.
H2H EDGE
BUF has won 5 of the last 5 meetings against NYJ.
DRIVE EFF
BUF scores 2.5 points per drive vs 1.0 for NYJ. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 9.1-point margin.
Multiple signals align in BUF's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | BUF market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
BUF
J.Allen
QB
364.6SEASON PPR
J.Cook
RB
302.2SEASON PPR
K.Shakir
WR
166.4SEASON PPR
NYJ
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Buffalo BillsPASSING
J.Allen3668 yd · 25 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
J.Cook1621 yd · 12 TD
J.Allen579 yd · 14 TD
R.Davis275 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
K.Shakir72 rec · 719 yd · 4 TD
D.Kincaid39 rec · 571 yd · 5 TD
D.Knox36 rec · 417 yd · 4 TD
K.Coleman38 rec · 404 yd · 4 TD
VS
3,668PASSyds1,259
2,475RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@BUFW18 2026 | — | BUF | — |
| NYJ@BUFW18 2025 | NYJ 8, BUF 35 | BUF | W |
| BUF@NYJW2 2025 | BUF 30, NYJ 10 | BUF | W |
| NYJ@BUFW17 2024 | NYJ 14, BUF 40 | BUF | W |
| BUF@NYJW6 2024 | BUF 23, NYJ 20 | BUF | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs NYJ
Who is favored in Buffalo Bills at New York Jets?
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 80% win probability. The margin models project BUF by 9.1. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets play?
Week 10 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets game?
Buffalo Bills, 8-35 in Week 18 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Buffalo Bills or the New York Jets?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.152 against NYJ -0.274.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
