2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NYJ @ BUF – Week 11 2023
NYJ
BUF
NYJ
AWAY
6@32
BUF +26
FINAL · WEEK 11
2023 SEASON
BUF
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: BUF
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: BUF 78%Projected margin: 8.6
BUF
PICK SIDE
-8.0
SPREAD
8.6
PROJ MARGIN
-316
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 8.6. Actual: 26. Off by 17.4 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 18.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -8.0 | BUF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -316 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -395 | Won · +$0.32 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NYJ
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
BUF
Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
40°F
WIND
9 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NYJ
Breece Hall
RB
290.5SEASON PPR
Garrett Wilson
WR
213.2SEASON PPR
Tyler Conklin
TE
123.1SEASON PPR
BUF
Josh Allen
QB
392.6SEASON PPR
Stefon Diggs
WR
273.8SEASON PPR
James Cook
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@BUFW18 2025 | NYJ 8, BUF 35 | BUF | W |
| BUF@NYJW2 2025 | BUF 30, NYJ 10 | BUF | W |
| NYJ@BUFW17 2024 | NYJ 14, BUF 40 | BUF | W |
| BUF@NYJW6 2024 | BUF 23, NYJ 20 | BUF | W |
| BUF@NYJW1 2023 | BUF 16, NYJ 22 | BUF | L |
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES