Steelers vs Browns – Week 11 2023
PIT
CLE
PIT
AWAY
10@13
CLE BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 11
2023 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Pittsburgh Steelers 10, Cleveland Browns 13.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 58% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Steelers, 2 Browns.
Model confidence: PIT 58%Our line: PIT -2.7
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -2.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
-0.013Net EPA / play+0.045
-0.073 (23)Offense EPA / play-0.141 (28)
-0.060 (9)Defense EPA / play-0.186 (1)
42.0% (17)Offense success %38.9% (29)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT C-tier pick misses. CLE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PIT but CLE won. Projected margin was 2.7, the model overestimated by 5.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
CLE
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
48°F
WIND
11 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CLE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Pittsburgh SteelersPASSING
Kenny Pickett2070 yd · 6 TD · 4 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@CLEW4 2026 | PIT 24, CLE 27 | PIT | L |
| PIT@CLEW17 2025 | PIT 6, CLE 13 | PIT | L |
| CLE@PITW6 2025 | CLE 9, PIT 23 | PIT | W |
| CLE@PITW14 2024 | CLE 14, PIT 27 | PIT | W |
| PIT@CLEW12 2024 | PIT 19, CLE 24 | PIT | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs CLE
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 58% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project PIT by 2.7. The market has PIT at +2.5.
Cleveland Browns won, PIT 10, CLE 13. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 58% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at +2.5, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 11, the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Cleveland Browns were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 34.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.1, 10.1 above the market.
Week 11 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cleveland Browns, PIT 24, CLE 27 in Week 4 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Cleveland Browns: PIT -0.013 against CLE +0.045.
