Eagles vs Chiefs – Week 11 2023
PHI
KC
PHI
AWAY
21@17
PHI BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 11
2023 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Philadelphia Eagles 21, Kansas City Chiefs 17.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 62% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Eagles.
Model confidence: KC 62%Our line: KC -4.2
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -4.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
+0.005Net EPA / play+0.107
+0.054 (8)Offense EPA / play+0.021 (10)
+0.049 (29)Defense EPA / play-0.086 (6)
45.9% (7)Offense success %43.7% (12)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick misses. PHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked KC but PHI won. Projected margin was 4.2, the model overestimated by 8.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)
KC
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
45°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@KCW2 2025 | PHI 20, KC 17 | PHI | W |
| KC@PHIW4 2021 | KC 42, PHI 30 | KC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs KC
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project KC by 4.2. The market has KC at -2.5.
Philadelphia Eagles won, PHI 21, KC 17. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 62% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -2.5, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 11, the Philadelphia Eagles were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.8, 1.2 below the market.
Week 11 of the 2023 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, PHI 20, KC 17 in Week 2 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Kansas City Chiefs: PHI +0.005 against KC +0.107.
