PHI @ KC – Week 11 2023
PHI
KC
PHI
AWAY
21@17
PHI BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 11
2023 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
Model confidence: KC 62%Our line: KC -4.2
KC
PICK SIDE
-2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-4.2
OUR LINE
-165
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.005Net EPA / play+0.107
+0.054Offense EPA / play+0.021
+0.049Defense EPA / play-0.086
45.9%Offense success %43.7%
44.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick misses. PHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked KC but PHI won. Projected margin was 4.2, the model overestimated by 8.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | PHI | KC |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +124 | -148 |
| Our fair price | +165 | -165 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD KC -2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
62%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
57%
DIFFERENCE
+5%
Both figures are for KC. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)
KC
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
45°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
PHI
Jalen Hurts
QB
356.8 SEASON PPR
A.J. Brown
WR
289.6 SEASON PPR
DeVonta Smith
WR
227.6 SEASON PPR
KC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Philadelphia EaglesPASSING
Jalen Hurts3858 yd · 23 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
D'Andre Swift1049 yd · 5 TD
Jalen Hurts605 yd · 15 TD
Kenneth Gainwell364 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
A.J. Brown106 rec · 1456 yd · 7 TD
DeVonta Smith81 rec · 1066 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@KCW2 2025 | PHI 20, KC 17 | PHI | W |
| KC@PHIW4 2021 | KC 42, PHI 30 | KC | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs KC
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project KC by 4.2. The market has KC at -2.5.
The model projects 44.8 combined points. The market total is 46.0.
Week 11 of the 2023 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, PHI 20, KC 17 in Week 2 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Kansas City Chiefs: PHI +0.005 against KC +0.107.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
