2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
PHI @ KC – Week 11 2023
PHI
KC
PHI
AWAY
21@17
PHI +4
FINAL · WEEK 11
2023 SEASON
KC
HOME
TIER B
PICK: KC
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: KC 62%Projected margin: 2.3
KC
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
2.3
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick misses. PHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked KC but PHI won. Projected margin was 2.3 -- the model overestimated by 6.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -148 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)
KC
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
45°F
WIND
12 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
PHI
Jalen Hurts
QB
356.8SEASON PPR
A.J. Brown
WR
289.6SEASON PPR
DeVonta Smith
WR
227.6SEASON PPR
KC
Patrick Mahomes
QB
280.2SEASON PPR
Travis Kelce
TE
219.4SEASON PPR
Isiah Pacheco
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@KCW2 2025 | PHI 20, KC 17 | PHI | W |
| KC@PHIW4 2021 | KC 42, PHI 30 | KC | W |
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES