2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DAL @ CAR – Week 11 2023
DAL
CAR
DAL
AWAY
33@10
DAL +23
FINAL · WEEK 11
2023 SEASON
CAR
HOME
TIER A
PICK: DAL
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: DAL 74%Projected margin: -6.7
DAL
PICK SIDE
-11.0
SPREAD
-6.7
PROJ MARGIN
-487
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DAL. Projected margin: 6.7. Actual: 23. Off by 16.3 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 12.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -11.0 | DAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -487 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -650 | Won · +$0.21 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DAL
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)
CAR
Divisional 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
65°F
WIND
2 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DAL
CeeDee Lamb
WR
403.2SEASON PPR
Dak Prescott
QB
342.8SEASON PPR
Tony Pollard
RB
222.6SEASON PPR
CAR
Adam Thielen
WR
231.0SEASON PPR
Chuba Hubbard
RB
182.5SEASON PPR
Bryce Young
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@CARW6 2025 | DAL 27, CAR 30 | DAL | L |
| DAL@CARW15 2024 | DAL 30, CAR 14 | DAL | W |
| CAR@DALW4 2021 | CAR 28, DAL 36 | CAR | L |
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES