Cowboys vs Panthers – Week 11 2023
DAL
CAR
DAL
AWAY
33@10
DAL BY 23
FINAL · WEEK 11
2023 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Dallas Cowboys 33, Carolina Panthers 10.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 74% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Panthers.
Model confidence: DAL 74%Our line: DAL -8.7
ODDS
SPREAD
DAL -11.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DAL -8.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
74%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
+0.220Net EPA / play-0.200
+0.106 (3)Offense EPA / play-0.177 (30)
-0.114 (4)Defense EPA / play+0.023 (27)
47.4% (3)Offense success %37.6% (31)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DAL. Projected margin: 8.7. Actual: 23. Off by 14.3 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 12.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)
CAR
Divisional 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
65°F
WIND
2 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@CARW6 2025 | DAL 27, CAR 30 | DAL | L |
| DAL@CARW15 2024 | DAL 30, CAR 14 | DAL | W |
| CAR@DALW4 2021 | CAR 28, DAL 36 | CAR | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs CAR
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 74% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project DAL by 8.7. The market has DAL at -11.0.
Dallas Cowboys won, DAL 33, CAR 10. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 74% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at -11.0, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 11.0 points.
In Week 11, the Carolina Panthers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.5, 2.5 above the market.
Week 11 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Carolina Panthers, DAL 27, CAR 30 in Week 6 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Dallas Cowboys: DAL +0.220 against CAR -0.200.
