2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CAR @ DAL – Week 4 2021
CAR
DAL
CAR
AWAY
28@36
DAL +8
FINAL · WEEK 4
2021 SEASON
DAL
HOME
TIER C
PICK: CAR
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: CAR 51%Projected margin: -0.7
CAR
PICK SIDE
+4.5
SPREAD
-0.7
PROJ MARGIN
+191
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
CAR C-tier pick misses. DAL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CAR but DAL won. Projected margin was 0.7 -- the model overestimated by 8.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +4.5 | CAR market line | |
| MODEL ML | +191 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +186 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CAR
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
DAL
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Road Favorite 5-0 ATS (100%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
CAR
DJ Moore
WR
237.5SEASON PPR
Sam Darnold
QB
157.3SEASON PPR
Robbie Chosen
WR
138.5SEASON PPR
DAL
Dak Prescott
QB
320.6SEASON PPR
Ezekiel Elliott
RB
252.1SEASON PPR
CeeDee Lamb
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@CARW6 2025 | DAL 27, CAR 30 | DAL | L |
| DAL@CARW15 2024 | DAL 30, CAR 14 | DAL | W |
| DAL@CARW11 2023 | DAL 33, CAR 10 | DAL | W |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES