Panthers vs Cowboys – Week 4 2021
CAR
DAL
CAR
AWAY
28@36
DAL BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 4
2021 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Carolina Panthers 28, Dallas Cowboys 36.
Going in, our model had favored Carolina Panthers at 51% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Panthers, 4 Cowboys.
Model confidence: CAR 51%Our line: CAR -0.3
ODDS
SPREAD
CAR +4.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CAR -0.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CAR · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
51%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
-0.093Net EPA / play+0.187
-0.138 (30)Offense EPA / play+0.096 (5)
-0.044 (7)Defense EPA / play-0.091 (3)
40.9% (27)Offense success %47.0% (7)
GAME NARRATIVE
CAR C-tier pick misses. DAL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CAR but DAL won. Projected margin was 0.3, the model overestimated by 8.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CAR
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
DAL
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Road Favorite 5-0 ATS (100%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@CARW6 2025 | DAL 27, CAR 30 | DAL | L |
| DAL@CARW15 2024 | DAL 30, CAR 14 | DAL | W |
| DAL@CARW11 2023 | DAL 33, CAR 10 | DAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs DAL
Our model takes Carolina Panthers at 51% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project CAR by 0.3. The market has CAR at +4.5.
Dallas Cowboys won, CAR 28, DAL 36. Our model had favored Carolina Panthers at 51% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Carolina Panthers at +4.5, meaning the book expects Carolina Panthers to win by 4.5 points.
In Week 4, the Carolina Panthers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Dallas Cowboys were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 51.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.0, 3.5 below the market.
Week 4 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Carolina Panthers, DAL 27, CAR 30 in Week 6 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Dallas Cowboys: CAR -0.093 against DAL +0.187.
