DAL @ CAR – Week 6 2025
DAL
CAR
DAL
AWAY
27@30
CAR BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 6
2025 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
Model confidence: DAL 50%Our line: DAL +0.0
DAL
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
+0.0
OUR LINE
+100
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.070Net EPA / play-0.107
+0.097Offense EPA / play-0.039
+0.167Defense EPA / play+0.067
46.6%Offense success %43.1%
48.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL C-tier pick misses. CAR takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DAL but CAR won. Projected margin was 0.0, the model overestimated by 3.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | DAL | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -175 | +145 |
| Our fair price | +100 | -100 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DAL -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
50%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
61%
DIFFERENCE
-11%
Both figures are for DAL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
CAR
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
68°F
WIND
15 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DAL
D.Prescott
QB
313.8 SEASON PPR
G.Pickens
WR
291.9 SEASON PPR
J.Williams
RB
242.8 SEASON PPR
CAR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Dallas CowboysPASSING
D.Prescott4552 yd · 30 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
J.Williams1201 yd · 11 TD
M.Davis250 yd · 2 TD
D.Prescott177 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
G.Pickens93 rec · 1429 yd · 9 TD
C.Lamb75 rec · 1077 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@CARW15 2024 | DAL 30, CAR 14 | DAL | W |
| DAL@CARW11 2023 | DAL 33, CAR 10 | DAL | W |
| CAR@DALW4 2021 | CAR 28, DAL 36 | CAR | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs CAR
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project CAR by 0.0. The market has DAL at -3.0.
The model projects 44.7 combined points. The market total is 47.5.
Week 6 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Dallas Cowboys, DAL 30, CAR 14 in Week 15 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Dallas Cowboys: DAL -0.070 against CAR -0.107.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
