2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DAL @ CAR – Week 6 2025
DAL
CAR
DAL
AWAY
27@30
CAR +3
FINAL · WEEK 6
2025 SEASON
CAR
HOME
TIER C
PICK: DAL
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: DAL 50%Projected margin: 1.2
DAL
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
1.2
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL C-tier pick misses. CAR takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DAL but CAR won. Projected margin was 1.2 -- the model overestimated by 1.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | DAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DAL
Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
CAR
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
68°F
WIND
15 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DAL
D.Prescott
QB
313.8SEASON PPR
G.Pickens
WR
291.9SEASON PPR
J.Williams
RB
242.8SEASON PPR
CAR
B.Young
QB
218.0SEASON PPR
R.Dowdle
RB
216.3SEASON PPR
T.McMillan
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@CARW15 2024 | DAL 30, CAR 14 | DAL | W |
| DAL@CARW11 2023 | DAL 33, CAR 10 | DAL | W |
| CAR@DALW4 2021 | CAR 28, DAL 36 | CAR | L |
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES