2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
SF @ TB – Week 6 2025
SF
TB
SF
AWAY
19@30
TB +11
FINAL · WEEK 6
2025 SEASON
TB
HOME
TIER B
PICK: TB
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: TB 67%Projected margin: 4.6
TB
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
4.6
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 4.6. Actual: 11. Off by 6.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.61 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
SF
Road Favorite 6-0 ATS (100%)
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
82°F
WIND
10 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
SF
C.McCaffrey
RB
416.6SEASON PPR
B.Purdy
QB
177.4SEASON PPR
J.Jennings
WR
173.3SEASON PPR
TB
B.Mayfield
QB
271.9SEASON PPR
E.Egbuka
WR
195.7SEASON PPR
R.White
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@TBW10 2024 | SF 23, TB 20 | SF | W |
| TB@SFW11 2023 | TB 14, SF 27 | SF | W |
| TB@SFW14 2022 | TB 7, SF 35 | SF | W |
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES