49ers vs Buccaneers – Week 6 2025
SF
TB
SF
AWAY
19@30
TB BY 11
FINAL · WEEK 6
2025 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: San Francisco 49ers 19, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 49ers, 6 Buccaneers.
Model confidence: TB 67%Our line: TB -6.0
ODDS
SPREAD
TB -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -6.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
+0.018Net EPA / play-0.022
+0.088 (6)Offense EPA / play-0.009 (20)
+0.070 (24)Defense EPA / play+0.013 (17)
48.3% (4)Offense success %42.4% (24)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 6.0. Actual: 11. Off by 5.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
Road Favorite 6-0 ATS (100%)
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
82°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@TBW10 2024 | SF 23, TB 20 | SF | W |
| TB@SFW11 2023 | TB 14, SF 27 | SF | W |
| TB@SFW14 2022 | TB 7, SF 35 | SF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs TB
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TB by 6.0. The market has TB at -3.5.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won, SF 19, TB 30. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -3.5, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 6, the San Francisco 49ers were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.5, 1.0 below the market.
Week 6 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, SF 23, TB 20 in Week 10 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, San Francisco 49ers: SF +0.018 against TB -0.022.
