SF @ TB – Week 6 2025
SF
TB
SF
AWAY
19@30
TB BY 11
FINAL · WEEK 6
2025 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
Model confidence: TB 67%Our line: TB -6.0
TB
PICK SIDE
-3.5
MARKET SPREAD
-6.0
OUR LINE
-204
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.018Net EPA / play-0.022
+0.088Offense EPA / play-0.009
+0.070Defense EPA / play+0.013
48.3%Offense success %42.4%
48.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 6.0. Actual: 11. Off by 5.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | SF | TB |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +160 | -192 |
| Our fair price | +204 | -204 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD TB -3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.61
OUR NUMBER
67%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
63%
DIFFERENCE
+4%
Both figures are for TB. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
Road Favorite 6-0 ATS (100%)
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
82°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
SF
C.McCaffrey
RB
416.6 SEASON PPR
B.Purdy
QB
177.4 SEASON PPR
J.Jennings
WR
173.3 SEASON PPR
TB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
San Francisco 49ersPASSING
B.Purdy2167 yd · 20 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
C.McCaffrey1202 yd · 10 TD
B.Robinson400 yd · 2 TD
B.Purdy147 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
C.McCaffrey102 rec · 924 yd · 7 TD
J.Jennings55 rec · 643 yd · 9 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@TBW10 2024 | SF 23, TB 20 | SF | W |
| TB@SFW11 2023 | TB 14, SF 27 | SF | W |
| TB@SFW14 2022 | TB 7, SF 35 | SF | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs TB
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TB by 6.0. The market has TB at -3.5.
The model projects 45.5 combined points. The market total is 46.5.
Week 6 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, SF 23, TB 20 in Week 10 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, San Francisco 49ers: SF +0.018 against TB -0.022.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
