CHI @ WAS – Week 6 2025
CHI
WAS
CHI
AWAY
25@24
CHI BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 6
2025 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
Model confidence: WAS 70%Our line: WAS -7.0
WAS
PICK SIDE
-5.5
MARKET SPREAD
-7.0
OUR LINE
-230
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.061Net EPA / play-0.137
+0.080Offense EPA / play+0.005
+0.018Defense EPA / play+0.142
45.8%Offense success %45.6%
46.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
WAS B-tier pick misses. CHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked WAS but CHI won. Projected margin was 7.0, the model overestimated by 8.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CHI | WAS |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +210 | -258 |
| Our fair price | +230 | -230 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD WAS -5.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
70%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
69%
DIFFERENCE
+1%
Both figures are for WAS. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
WAS
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
59°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
CHI
C.Williams
QB
318.2 SEASON PPR
D.Swift
RB
228.6 SEASON PPR
D.Moore
WR
172.2 SEASON PPR
WAS
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Chicago BearsPASSING
C.Williams3942 yd · 27 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
D.Swift1087 yd · 9 TD
K.Monangai783 yd · 5 TD
C.Williams383 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
C.Loveland58 rec · 713 yd · 6 TD
D.Moore50 rec · 682 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@WASW8 2024 | CHI 15, WAS 18 | WAS | W |
| CHI@WASW5 2023 | CHI 40, WAS 20 | WAS | L |
| WAS@CHIW6 2022 | WAS 12, CHI 7 | CHI | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs WAS
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Washington Commanders at 70% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project WAS by 7.0. The market has WAS at -5.5.
The model projects 45.4 combined points. The market total is 49.5.
Week 6 of the 2025 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Washington Commanders, CHI 15, WAS 18 in Week 8 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Chicago Bears: CHI +0.061 against WAS -0.137.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
