2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DET @ KC – Week 6 2025
DET
KC
DET
AWAY
17@30
KC +13
FINAL · WEEK 6
2025 SEASON
KC
HOME
TIER C
PICK: DET
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: DET 62%Projected margin: -1.5
DET
PICK SIDE
+2.5
SPREAD
-1.5
PROJ MARGIN
+143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DET C-tier pick misses. KC takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DET but KC won. Projected margin was 1.5 -- the model overestimated by 14.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +2.5 | DET market line | |
| MODEL ML | +143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +143 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DET
Primetime 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
KC
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 1-7 ATS (13%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
85°F
WIND
13 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DET
J.Gibbs
RB
366.9SEASON PPR
A.St. Brown
WR
324.0SEASON PPR
J.Goff
QB
297.1SEASON PPR
KC
P.Mahomes
QB
285.7SEASON PPR
T.Kelce
TE
193.2SEASON PPR
R.Rice
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@KCW1 2023 | DET 21, KC 20 | KC | L |
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES