Lions vs Chiefs – Week 6 2025
DET
KC
DET
AWAY
17@30
KC BY 13
FINAL · WEEK 6
2025 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Detroit Lions 17, Kansas City Chiefs 30.
Going in, our model had favored Detroit Lions at 62% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 7 Lions.
Model confidence: DET 62%Our line: DET -4.1
ODDS
SPREAD
DET +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET -4.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
+0.091Net EPA / play+0.055
+0.081 (7)Offense EPA / play+0.035 (11)
-0.010 (14)Defense EPA / play-0.020 (12)
45.2% (12)Offense success %44.5% (14)
GAME NARRATIVE
DET C-tier pick misses. KC takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DET but KC won. Projected margin was 4.1, the model overestimated by 17.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Primetime 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
KC
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 1-7 ATS (13%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
85°F
WIND
13 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs KC
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 62% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DET by 4.1. The market has DET at +2.5.
Kansas City Chiefs won, DET 17, KC 30. Our model had favored Detroit Lions at 62% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Detroit Lions at +2.5, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 6, the Detroit Lions were without 7 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 51.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.8, 5.7 below the market.
Week 6 of the 2025 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Detroit Lions, DET 21, KC 20 in Week 1 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Detroit Lions: DET +0.091 against KC +0.055.
