2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NE @ NO – Week 6 2025
NE
NO
NE
AWAY
25@19
NE +6
FINAL · WEEK 6
2025 SEASON
NO
HOME
TIER C
PICK: NO
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: NO 60%Projected margin: 0.6
NO
PICK SIDE
+3.5
SPREAD
0.6
PROJ MARGIN
+165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
NO C-tier pick misses. NE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NO but NE won. Projected margin was 0.6 -- the model overestimated by 6.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +3.5 | NO market line | |
| MODEL ML | +165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +165 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NE
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
NE
D.Maye
QB
352.0SEASON PPR
S.Diggs
WR
210.3SEASON PPR
T.Henderson
RB
206.2SEASON PPR
NO
C.Olave
WR
268.0SEASON PPR
J.Johnson
TE
179.9SEASON PPR
T.Shough
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@NEW5 2023 | NO 34, NE 0 | NE | L |
| NO@NEW3 2021 | NO 28, NE 13 | NO | W |
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES