CIN @ GB – Week 6 2025
CIN
GB
CIN
AWAY
18@27
GB BY 9
FINAL · WEEK 6
2025 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
Model confidence: GB 70%Our line: GB -7.2
GB
PICK SIDE
-14.0
MARKET SPREAD
-7.2
OUR LINE
-237
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.138Net EPA / play+0.082
-0.009Offense EPA / play+0.115
+0.130Defense EPA / play+0.033
45.5%Offense success %47.7%
47.8%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected GB by 7.2. Actual: 9 points. The model was within 1.8 points of the real margin.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CIN | GB |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +650 | -1000 |
| Our fair price | +237 | -237 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD GB -14.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.13
OUR NUMBER
70%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
87%
DIFFERENCE
-17%
Both figures are for GB. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
64°F
WIND
14 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
CIN
J.Chase
WR
313.6 SEASON PPR
C.Brown
RB
282.6 SEASON PPR
T.Higgins
WR
211.6 SEASON PPR
GB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cincinnati BengalsPASSING
J.Burrow1809 yd · 17 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
C.Brown1019 yd · 6 TD
S.Perine382 yd · 3 TD
T.Brooks45 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
J.Chase125 rec · 1412 yd · 8 TD
T.Higgins59 rec · 846 yd · 11 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs GB
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 70% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project GB by 7.2. The market has GB at -14.0.
The model projects 46.6 combined points. The market total is 44.5.
Week 6 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Green Bay Packers, GB 25, CIN 22 in Week 5 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Green Bay Packers: CIN -0.138 against GB +0.082.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
