Bengals vs Packers – Week 6 2025
CIN
GB
CIN
AWAY
18@27
GB BY 9
FINAL · WEEK 6
2025 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cincinnati Bengals 18, Green Bay Packers 27.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Bengals, 3 Packers.
Model confidence: GB 70%Our line: GB -7.2
ODDS
SPREAD
GB -14.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -7.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
70%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
-0.138Net EPA / play+0.082
-0.009 (19)Offense EPA / play+0.115 (4)
+0.130 (29)Defense EPA / play+0.033 (22)
45.5% (11)Offense success %47.7% (5)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected GB by 7.2. Actual: 9 points. The model was within 1.8 points of the real margin.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
64°F
WIND
14 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs GB
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 70% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project GB by 7.2. The market has GB at -14.0.
Green Bay Packers won, CIN 18, GB 27. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Green Bay Packers at -14.0, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 14.0 points.
In Week 6, the Cincinnati Bengals were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Green Bay Packers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.6, 2.1 above the market.
Week 6 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Green Bay Packers, GB 25, CIN 22 in Week 5 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Green Bay Packers: CIN -0.138 against GB +0.082.
