Titans vs Raiders – Week 6 2025
TEN
LV
TEN
AWAY
10@20
LV BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 6
2025 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tennessee Titans 10, Las Vegas Raiders 20.
Going in, our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 Titans, 1 Raiders.
Model confidence: LV 67%Our line: LV -5.9
ODDS
SPREAD
LV -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LV -5.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LV · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
-0.260Net EPA / play-0.240
-0.160 (30)Offense EPA / play-0.215 (32)
+0.100 (28)Defense EPA / play+0.024 (21)
37.4% (31)Offense success %37.6% (30)
GAME NARRATIVE
LV B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LV. Projected margin: 5.9. Actual: 10. Off by 4.1 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 6.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
LV
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@TENW3 2022 | LV 22, TEN 24 | TEN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs LV
Our model takes Las Vegas Raiders at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LV by 5.9. The market has LV at -3.5.
Las Vegas Raiders won, TEN 10, LV 20. Our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Las Vegas Raiders at -3.5, meaning the book expects Las Vegas Raiders to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 6, the Tennessee Titans were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Las Vegas Raiders were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.5, 4.0 above the market.
Week 6 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Tennessee Titans, LV 22, TEN 24 in Week 3 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Las Vegas Raiders: TEN -0.260 against LV -0.240.
