Raiders vs Titans – Week 3 2022
LV
TEN
LV
AWAY
22@24
TEN BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 3
2022 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Las Vegas Raiders 22, Tennessee Titans 24.
Going in, our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Raiders, 5 Titans.
Model confidence: TEN 61%Our line: TEN -3.9
ODDS
SPREAD
TEN +1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TEN -3.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
-0.064Net EPA / play-0.064
+0.000 (17)Offense EPA / play-0.059 (25)
+0.064 (29)Defense EPA / play+0.004 (18)
43.1% (21)Offense success %41.1% (22)
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected TEN by 3.9. Actual: 2 points. The model was within 1.9 points of the real margin.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
TEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
Derek Carr3522 yd · 24 TD · 14 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs TEN
Our model takes Tennessee Titans at 61% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project TEN by 3.9. The market has TEN at +1.5.
Tennessee Titans won, LV 22, TEN 24. Our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tennessee Titans at +1.5, meaning the book expects Tennessee Titans to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 3, the Las Vegas Raiders were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Tennessee Titans were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.0, 2.5 above the market.
Week 3 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Las Vegas Raiders, TEN 10, LV 20 in Week 6 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Las Vegas Raiders: LV -0.064 against TEN -0.064.
