Texans vs Bears – Week 3 2022
HOU
CHI
HOU
AWAY
20@23
CHI BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 3
2022 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Houston Texans 20, Chicago Bears 23.
Going in, our model had favored Chicago Bears at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Texans, 4 Bears.
Model confidence: CHI 61%Our line: CHI -3.8
ODDS
SPREAD
CHI -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CHI -3.8
OUR LINE
PUSH
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
-0.192Net EPA / play-0.164
-0.189 (32)Offense EPA / play-0.046 (23)
+0.003 (17)Defense EPA / play+0.118 (32)
36.9% (32)Offense success %40.5% (27)
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected CHI by 3.8. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.8 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 12 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (-3.0). Push, no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)
CHI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
CHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Houston TexansPASSING
Davis Mills3118 yd · 17 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
Dameon Pierce939 yd · 4 TD
Dare Ogunbowale123 yd · 1 TD
Royce Freeman117 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Brandin Cooks57 rec · 699 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@HOUW2 2024 | CHI 13, HOU 19 | HOU | W |
| HOU@CHIW14 2020 | HOU 7, CHI 36 | HOU | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs CHI
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 61% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project CHI by 3.8. The market has CHI at -3.0.
Chicago Bears won, HOU 20, CHI 23. Our model had favored Chicago Bears at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Chicago Bears at -3.0, meaning the book expects Chicago Bears to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 3, the Houston Texans were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Chicago Bears were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.5, 7.5 above the market.
Week 3 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, CHI 13, HOU 19 in Week 2 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Chicago Bears: HOU -0.192 against CHI -0.164.
