2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
HOU @ CHI – Week 3 2022
HOU
CHI
HOU
AWAY
20@23
CHI +3
FINAL · WEEK 3
2022 SEASON
CHI
HOME
TIER C
PICK: CHI
PICK WONATS PUSH
Model confidence: CHI 61%Projected margin: 2.6
CHI
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
2.6
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
PUSH
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected CHI by 2.6. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.4 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 12 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (+3.0). Push -- no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | CHI market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -156 | Won · +$0.65 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)
CHI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
HOU
Davis Mills
QB
181.5SEASON PPR
Dameon Pierce
RB
166.4SEASON PPR
Brandin Cooks
WR
145.6SEASON PPR
CHI
Justin Fields
QB
296.0SEASON PPR
David Montgomery
RB
177.7SEASON PPR
Cole Kmet
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@HOUW2 2024 | CHI 13, HOU 19 | HOU | W |
| HOU@CHIW14 2020 | HOU 7, CHI 36 | HOU | L |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES