2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
KC @ IND – Week 3 2022
KC
IND
KC
AWAY
17@20
IND +3
FINAL · WEEK 3
2022 SEASON
IND
HOME
TIER A
PICK: KC
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: KC 73%Projected margin: -6.2
KC
PICK SIDE
-4.5
SPREAD
-6.2
PROJ MARGIN
-191
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC A-tier pick misses. IND takes it.
MISSED
Model picked KC but IND won. Projected margin was 6.2 -- the model overestimated by 9.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -4.5 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -191 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -199 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
KC
Road Favorite 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
IND
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
RETRACTABLE
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
KC
Patrick Mahomes
QB
417.4SEASON PPR
Travis Kelce
TE
316.3SEASON PPR
Jerick McKinnon
RB
196.3SEASON PPR
IND
Michael Pittman
WR
216.5SEASON PPR
Matt Ryan
QB
155.3SEASON PPR
Parris Campbell
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@KCW12 2025 | IND 20, KC 23 | IND | L |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES