Chiefs vs Colts – Week 3 2022
KC
IND
KC
AWAY
17@20
IND BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 3
2022 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Kansas City Chiefs 17, Indianapolis Colts 20.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 73% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Chiefs, 2 Colts.
Model confidence: KC 73%Our line: KC -8.2
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -4.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -8.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
73%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
+0.204Net EPA / play-0.141
+0.186 (1)Offense EPA / play-0.168 (31)
-0.019 (14)Defense EPA / play-0.027 (11)
50.4% (1)Offense success %39.8% (29)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC A-tier pick misses. IND takes it.
MISSED
Model picked KC but IND won. Projected margin was 8.2, the model overestimated by 11.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
KC
Road Favorite 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
IND
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
RETRACTABLE
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
IND
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@KCW2 2026 | IND 30, KC 33 | KC | W |
| IND@KCW12 2025 | IND 20, KC 23 | IND | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs IND
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 73% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project KC by 8.2. The market has KC at -4.5.
Indianapolis Colts won, KC 17, IND 20. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 73% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -4.5, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 4.5 points.
In Week 3, the Kansas City Chiefs were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Indianapolis Colts were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 51.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.0, 3.0 below the market.
Week 3 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, IND 30, KC 33 in Week 2 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Kansas City Chiefs: KC +0.204 against IND -0.141.
