Colts vs Chiefs – Week 12 2025
IND
KC
IND
AWAY
20@23
KC BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 12
2025 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Indianapolis Colts 20, Kansas City Chiefs 23.
Going in, our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 59% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Colts, 1 Chiefs.
Model confidence: IND 59%Our line: IND -3.2
ODDS
SPREAD
IND +3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
IND -3.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
IND · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
+0.068Net EPA / play+0.055
+0.072 (9)Offense EPA / play+0.035 (11)
+0.004 (16)Defense EPA / play-0.020 (12)
46.3% (8)Offense success %44.5% (14)
GAME NARRATIVE
IND C-tier pick misses. KC takes it.
MISSED
Model picked IND but KC won. Projected margin was 3.2, the model overestimated by 6.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
No noteworthy trends
KC
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 1-7 ATS (13%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@KCW2 2026 | IND 30, KC 33 | KC | W |
| KC@INDW3 2022 | KC 17, IND 20 | KC | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs KC
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project IND by 3.2. The market has IND at +3.5.
Kansas City Chiefs won, IND 20, KC 23. Our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 59% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Indianapolis Colts at +3.5, meaning the book expects Indianapolis Colts to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 12, the Indianapolis Colts were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Kansas City Chiefs were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 50.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.4, 6.1 below the market.
Week 12 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, IND 30, KC 33 in Week 2 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Indianapolis Colts: IND +0.068 against KC +0.055.
