IND @ KC – Week 12 2025
IND
KC
IND
AWAY
20@23
KC BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 12
2025 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
Model confidence: IND 59%Our line: IND -3.2
IND
PICK SIDE
+3.5
MARKET SPREAD
-3.2
OUR LINE
-146
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.068Net EPA / play+0.055
+0.072Offense EPA / play+0.035
+0.004Defense EPA / play-0.020
46.3%Offense success %44.5%
45.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
IND C-tier pick misses. KC takes it.
MISSED
Model picked IND but KC won. Projected margin was 3.2, the model overestimated by 6.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | IND | KC |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +180 | -218 |
| Our fair price | -146 | +146 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD IND +3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
59%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
34%
DIFFERENCE
+25%
Both figures are for IND. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
No noteworthy trends
KC
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 1-7 ATS (13%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
IND
J.Taylor
RB
362.3 SEASON PPR
D.Jones
QB
226.4 SEASON PPR
M.Pittman
WR
202.4 SEASON PPR
KC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
D.Jones3101 yd · 19 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
J.Taylor1585 yd · 18 TD
D.Jones164 yd · 5 TD
D.Giddens96 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
A.Pierce47 rec · 1003 yd · 6 TD
T.Warren76 rec · 817 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs KC
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project IND by 3.2. The market has IND at +3.5.
The model projects 44.4 combined points. The market total is 50.5.
Week 12 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, KC 17, IND 20 in Week 3 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Indianapolis Colts: IND +0.068 against KC +0.055.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
