SEA @ TEN – Week 12 2025
SEA
TEN
SEA
AWAY
30@24
SEA BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 12
2025 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
Model confidence: SEA 81%Our line: SEA -12.1
SEA
PICK SIDE
-12.5
MARKET SPREAD
-12.1
OUR LINE
-439
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.150Net EPA / play-0.260
+0.033Offense EPA / play-0.160
-0.117Defense EPA / play+0.100
46.3%Offense success %37.4%
39.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SEA. Projected margin: 12.1. Actual: 6. Off by 6.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | SEA | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -950 | +625 |
| Our fair price | -439 | +439 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD SEA -12.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.17
OUR NUMBER
81%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
87%
DIFFERENCE
-5%
Both figures are for SEA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SEA
Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
TEN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
55°F
WIND
1 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
SEA
J.Smith-Njigba
WR
359.9 SEASON PPR
S.Darnold
QB
235.4 SEASON PPR
K.Walker
RB
191.9 SEASON PPR
TEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Seattle SeahawksPASSING
S.Darnold4048 yd · 25 TD · 14 INT
RUSHING
K.Walker1027 yd · 5 TD
Z.Charbonnet730 yd · 12 TD
S.Darnold95 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
J.Smith-Njigba119 rec · 1793 yd · 10 TD
C.Kupp47 rec · 593 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@TENW16 2023 | SEA 20, TEN 17 | SEA | W |
| TEN@SEAW2 2021 | TEN 33, SEA 30 | SEA | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSSEA vs TEN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 81% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project SEA by 12.1. The market has SEA at -12.5.
The model projects 44.5 combined points. The market total is 41.5.
Week 12 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, SEA 20, TEN 17 in Week 16 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Seattle Seahawks: SEA +0.150 against TEN -0.260.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
