Steelers vs Bears – Week 12 2025
PIT
CHI
PIT
AWAY
28@31
CHI BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 12
2025 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Pittsburgh Steelers 28, Chicago Bears 31.
Going in, our model had favored Chicago Bears at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Steelers, 5 Bears.
Model confidence: CHI 63%Our line: CHI -4.6
ODDS
SPREAD
CHI -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CHI -4.6
OUR LINE
PUSH
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
+0.007Net EPA / play+0.061
+0.025 (16)Offense EPA / play+0.080 (8)
+0.018 (18)Defense EPA / play+0.018 (19)
44.0% (17)Offense success %45.8% (9)
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected CHI by 4.6. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.6 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (-3.0). Push, no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
CHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
51°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@PITW9 2021 | CHI 27, PIT 29 | PIT | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs CHI
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CHI by 4.6. The market has CHI at -3.0.
Chicago Bears won, PIT 28, CHI 31. Our model had favored Chicago Bears at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Chicago Bears at -3.0, meaning the book expects Chicago Bears to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 12, the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Chicago Bears were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.4, 0.1 below the market.
Week 12 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, CHI 27, PIT 29 in Week 9 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Chicago Bears: PIT +0.007 against CHI +0.061.
