PIT @ CHI – Week 12 2025
PIT
CHI
PIT
AWAY
28@31
CHI BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 12
2025 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
Model confidence: CHI 63%Our line: CHI -4.6
CHI
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-4.6
OUR LINE
-173
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
PUSH
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.007Net EPA / play+0.061
+0.025Offense EPA / play+0.080
+0.018Defense EPA / play+0.018
44.0%Offense success %45.8%
43.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected CHI by 4.6. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.6 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (-3.0). Push, no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | PIT | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +130 | -155 |
| Our fair price | +173 | -173 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CHI -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.65
OUR NUMBER
63%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
58%
DIFFERENCE
+5%
Both figures are for CHI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
CHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
51°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
PIT
A.Rodgers
QB
227.1 SEASON PPR
K.Gainwell
RB
221.3 SEASON PPR
J.Warren
RB
217.1 SEASON PPR
CHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Pittsburgh SteelersPASSING
A.Rodgers3322 yd · 24 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
J.Warren958 yd · 6 TD
K.Gainwell537 yd · 5 TD
K.Johnson69 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
D.Metcalf59 rec · 850 yd · 6 TD
K.Gainwell73 rec · 486 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@PITW9 2021 | CHI 27, PIT 29 | PIT | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs CHI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CHI by 4.6. The market has CHI at -3.0.
The model projects 46.4 combined points. The market total is 46.5.
Week 12 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, CHI 27, PIT 29 in Week 9 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Chicago Bears: PIT +0.007 against CHI +0.061.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
