2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
PIT @ CHI – Week 12 2025
PIT
CHI
PIT
AWAY
28@31
CHI +3
FINAL · WEEK 12
2025 SEASON
CHI
HOME
TIER B
PICK: CHI
PICK WONATS PUSH
Model confidence: CHI 63%Projected margin: 2.2
CHI
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
2.2
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
PUSH
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected CHI by 2.2. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.8 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (+3.0). Push -- no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | CHI market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.65 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
CHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
51°F
WIND
3 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
PIT
A.Rodgers
QB
227.1SEASON PPR
K.Gainwell
RB
221.3SEASON PPR
J.Warren
RB
217.1SEASON PPR
CHI
C.Williams
QB
318.2SEASON PPR
D.Swift
RB
228.6SEASON PPR
D.Moore
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@PITW9 2021 | CHI 27, PIT 29 | PIT | W |
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES