2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
JAX @ ARI – Week 12 2025
JAX
ARI
JAX
AWAY
27@24
JAX +3
FINAL · WEEK 12
2025 SEASON
ARI
HOME
TIER C
PICK: JAX
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: JAX 63%Projected margin: -1.8
JAX
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
-1.8
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected JAX by 1.8. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.2 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | JAX market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.70 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
JAX
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
JAX
T.Lawrence
QB
338.2SEASON PPR
T.Etienne
RB
253.9SEASON PPR
P.Washington
WR
184.7SEASON PPR
ARI
T.McBride
TE
315.9SEASON PPR
J.Brissett
QB
227.4SEASON PPR
Mi.Wilson
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@JAXW3 2021 | ARI 31, JAX 19 | ARI | W |
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES