ATL @ NO – Week 12 2025
ATL
NO
ATL
AWAY
24@10
ATL BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 12
2025 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
Model confidence: ATL 58%Our line: ATL -2.7
ATL
PICK SIDE
+1.5
MARKET SPREAD
-2.7
OUR LINE
-138
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.018Net EPA / play-0.029
-0.021Offense EPA / play-0.088
-0.004Defense EPA / play-0.059
43.7%Offense success %42.0%
44.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked ATL. Projected margin: 2.7. Actual: 14. Off by 11.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 15.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | ATL | NO |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +102 | -122 |
| Our fair price | -138 | +138 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD ATL +1.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$1.24
OUR NUMBER
58%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
47%
DIFFERENCE
+11%
Both figures are for ATL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
ATL
B.Robinson
RB
370.8 SEASON PPR
K.Pitts
TE
210.8 SEASON PPR
D.London
WR
201.9 SEASON PPR
NO
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Atlanta FalconsPASSING
M.Penix1982 yd · 9 TD · 3 INT
RUSHING
B.Robinson1478 yd · 7 TD
T.Allgeier514 yd · 8 TD
M.Penix70 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
K.Pitts88 rec · 928 yd · 5 TD
D.London68 rec · 919 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@ATLW18 2025 | NO 17, ATL 19 | ATL | W |
| ATL@NOW10 2024 | ATL 17, NO 20 | ATL | L |
| NO@ATLW4 2024 | NO 24, ATL 26 | NO | L |
| ATL@NOW18 2023 | ATL 17, NO 48 | NO | W |
| NO@ATLW12 2023 | NO 15, ATL 24 | NO | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs NO
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Atlanta Falcons at 58% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project ATL by 2.7. The market has ATL at +1.5.
The model projects 44.8 combined points. The market total is 41.5.
Week 12 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, NO 17, ATL 19 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Atlanta Falcons: ATL -0.018 against NO -0.029.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
