Falcons vs Saints – Week 18 2023
ATL
NO
ATL
AWAY
17@48
NO BY 31
FINAL · WEEK 18
2023 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Atlanta Falcons 17, New Orleans Saints 48.
Going in, our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Falcons, 2 Saints.
Model confidence: NO 66%Our line: NO -5.7
ODDS
SPREAD
NO -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NO -5.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NO · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
-0.040Net EPA / play+0.086
-0.099 (26)Offense EPA / play-0.014 (13)
-0.059 (11)Defense EPA / play-0.100 (5)
41.1% (20)Offense success %42.1% (15)
GAME NARRATIVE
NO B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NO. Projected margin: 5.7. Actual: 31. Off by 25.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 27.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
No noteworthy trends
NO
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NO
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Atlanta FalconsPASSING
Desmond Ridder2836 yd · 12 TD · 12 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@NOW4 2026 | ATL 45, NO 24 | ATL | W |
| NO@ATLW18 2025 | NO 17, ATL 19 | ATL | W |
| ATL@NOW12 2025 | ATL 24, NO 10 | ATL | W |
| ATL@NOW10 2024 | ATL 17, NO 20 | ATL | L |
| NO@ATLW4 2024 | NO 24, ATL 26 | NO | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs NO
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NO by 5.7. The market has NO at -3.5.
New Orleans Saints won, ATL 17, NO 48. Our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New Orleans Saints at -3.5, meaning the book expects New Orleans Saints to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 18, the Atlanta Falcons were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New Orleans Saints were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.5, 4.0 above the market.
Week 18 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, ATL 45, NO 24 in Week 4 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, New Orleans Saints: ATL -0.040 against NO +0.086.
