2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
HOU @ IND – Week 18 2023
HOU
IND
HOU
AWAY
23@19
HOU +4
FINAL · WEEK 18
2023 SEASON
IND
HOME
TIER B
PICK: IND
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: IND 62%Projected margin: 1.9
IND
PICK SIDE
+1.5
SPREAD
1.9
PROJ MARGIN
+124
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
IND B-tier pick misses. HOU takes it.
MISSED
Model picked IND but HOU won. Projected margin was 1.9 -- the model overestimated by 5.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +1.5 | IND market line | |
| MODEL ML | +124 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +105 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
IND
Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
HOU
C.J. Stroud
QB
276.0SEASON PPR
Nico Collins
WR
260.4SEASON PPR
Devin Singletary
RB
167.3SEASON PPR
IND
Michael Pittman
WR
252.2SEASON PPR
Gardner Minshew
QB
196.2SEASON PPR
Zack Moss
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@HOUW18 2025 | IND 30, HOU 38 | HOU | W |
| HOU@INDW13 2025 | HOU 20, IND 16 | IND | L |
| IND@HOUW8 2024 | IND 20, HOU 23 | HOU | W |
| HOU@INDW1 2024 | HOU 29, IND 27 | IND | L |
| IND@HOUW2 2023 | IND 31, HOU 20 | HOU | L |
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES