Texans vs Colts – Week 13 2025
HOU
IND
HOU
AWAY
20@16
HOU BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 13
2025 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Houston Texans 20, Indianapolis Colts 16.
Going in, our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Texans, 1 Colts.
Model confidence: IND 63%Our line: IND -4.3
ODDS
SPREAD
IND -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
IND -4.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
IND · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
+0.118Net EPA / play+0.068
-0.013 (21)Offense EPA / play+0.072 (9)
-0.131 (1)Defense EPA / play+0.004 (16)
41.3% (28)Offense success %46.3% (8)
GAME NARRATIVE
IND C-tier pick misses. HOU takes it.
MISSED
Model picked IND but HOU won. Projected margin was 4.3, the model overestimated by 8.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@INDW3 2026 | HOU 17, IND 19 | HOU | L |
| IND@HOUW18 2025 | IND 30, HOU 38 | HOU | W |
| IND@HOUW8 2024 | IND 20, HOU 23 | HOU | W |
| HOU@INDW1 2024 | HOU 29, IND 27 | IND | L |
| HOU@INDW18 2023 | HOU 23, IND 19 | IND | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs IND
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 63% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project IND by 4.3. The market has IND at -3.0.
Houston Texans won, HOU 20, IND 16. Our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Indianapolis Colts at -3.0, meaning the book expects Indianapolis Colts to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 13, the Houston Texans were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Indianapolis Colts were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.5, 1.0 above the market.
Week 13 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, HOU 17, IND 19 in Week 3 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Houston Texans: HOU +0.118 against IND +0.068.
