2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
HOU @ IND – Week 13 2025
HOU
IND
HOU
AWAY
20@16
HOU +4
FINAL · WEEK 13
2025 SEASON
IND
HOME
TIER C
PICK: IND
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: IND 63%Projected margin: 2.1
IND
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
2.1
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
IND C-tier pick misses. HOU takes it.
MISSED
Model picked IND but HOU won. Projected margin was 2.1 -- the model overestimated by 6.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | IND market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Lost · -$1.00 |
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
HOU
N.Collins
WR
226.2SEASON PPR
C.Stroud
QB
208.5SEASON PPR
D.Schultz
TE
177.7SEASON PPR
IND
J.Taylor
RB
362.3SEASON PPR
D.Jones
QB
226.4SEASON PPR
M.Pittman
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@HOUW18 2025 | IND 30, HOU 38 | HOU | W |
| IND@HOUW8 2024 | IND 20, HOU 23 | HOU | W |
| HOU@INDW1 2024 | HOU 29, IND 27 | IND | L |
| HOU@INDW18 2023 | HOU 23, IND 19 | IND | L |
| IND@HOUW2 2023 | IND 31, HOU 20 | HOU | L |
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES