Saints vs Dolphins – Week 13 2025
NO
MIA
NO
AWAY
17@21
MIA BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 13
2025 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New Orleans Saints 17, Miami Dolphins 21.
Going in, our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 73% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Saints.
Model confidence: MIA 73%Our line: MIA -8.2
ODDS
SPREAD
MIA -5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIA -8.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
73%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
-0.029Net EPA / play-0.105
-0.088 (27)Offense EPA / play-0.017 (22)
-0.059 (10)Defense EPA / play+0.088 (26)
42.0% (26)Offense success %41.9% (27)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIA. Projected margin: 8.2. Actual: 4. Off by 4.2 points but directionally right.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
76°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@NOW16 2021 | MIA 20, NO 3 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs MIA
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 73% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project MIA by 8.2. The market has MIA at -5.5.
Miami Dolphins won, NO 17, MIA 21. Our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 73% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Miami Dolphins at -5.5, meaning the book expects Miami Dolphins to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 13, the New Orleans Saints were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.5, 5.0 above the market.
Week 13 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Miami Dolphins, MIA 20, NO 3 in Week 16 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, New Orleans Saints: NO -0.029 against MIA -0.105.
