NO @ MIA – Week 13 2025
NO
MIA
NO
AWAY
17@21
MIA BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 13
2025 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
Model confidence: MIA 73%Our line: MIA -8.2
MIA
PICK SIDE
-5.5
MARKET SPREAD
-8.2
OUR LINE
-269
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.029Net EPA / play-0.105
-0.088Offense EPA / play-0.017
-0.059Defense EPA / play+0.088
42.0%Offense success %41.9%
41.8%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIA. Projected margin: 8.2. Actual: 4. Off by 4.2 points but directionally right.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NO | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +205 | -250 |
| Our fair price | +269 | -269 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD MIA -5.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.45
OUR NUMBER
73%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
69%
DIFFERENCE
+4%
Both figures are for MIA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
76°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
NO
C.Olave
WR
268.0 SEASON PPR
J.Johnson
TE
179.9 SEASON PPR
T.Shough
QB
158.0 SEASON PPR
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New Orleans SaintsPASSING
T.Shough2384 yd · 10 TD · 6 INT
RUSHING
A.Kamara471 yd · 1 TD
D.Neal206 yd · 2 TD
A.Estime198 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
C.Olave100 rec · 1163 yd · 9 TD
J.Johnson77 rec · 889 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@NOW16 2021 | MIA 20, NO 3 | MIA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs MIA
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 73% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project MIA by 8.2. The market has MIA at -5.5.
The model projects 46.5 combined points. The market total is 41.5.
Week 13 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Miami Dolphins, MIA 20, NO 3 in Week 16 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, New Orleans Saints: NO -0.029 against MIA -0.105.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
