2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NO @ MIA – Week 13 2025
NO
MIA
NO
AWAY
17@21
MIA +4
FINAL · WEEK 13
2025 SEASON
MIA
HOME
TIER A
PICK: MIA
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: MIA 73%Projected margin: 6.7
MIA
PICK SIDE
-5.5
SPREAD
6.7
PROJ MARGIN
-221
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIA by 6.7. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 2.7 points of the real margin.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points -- a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -5.5 | MIA market line | |
| MODEL ML | -221 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.45 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
76°F
WIND
10 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
NO
C.Olave
WR
268.0SEASON PPR
J.Johnson
TE
179.9SEASON PPR
T.Shough
QB
158.0SEASON PPR
MIA
D.Achane
RB
322.8SEASON PPR
J.Waddle
WR
194.1SEASON PPR
T.Tagovailoa
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@NOW16 2021 | MIA 20, NO 3 | MIA | W |
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES