49ers vs Browns – Week 13 2025
SF
CLE
SF
AWAY
26@8
SF BY 18
FINAL · WEEK 13
2025 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: San Francisco 49ers 26, Cleveland Browns 8.
Going in, our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 49ers, 3 Browns.
Model confidence: SF 72%Our line: SF -8.0
ODDS
SPREAD
SF -5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SF -8.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
72%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
+0.018Net EPA / play-0.094
+0.088 (6)Offense EPA / play-0.190 (31)
+0.070 (24)Defense EPA / play-0.096 (5)
48.3% (4)Offense success %34.5% (32)
GAME NARRATIVE
SF A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SF. Projected margin: 8.0. Actual: 18. Off by 10.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 12.5 points.
HIGH WIND
20 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
Road Favorite 6-0 ATS (100%)
CLE
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
35°F
WIND
20 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs CLE
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 72% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project SF by 8.0. The market has SF at -5.5.
San Francisco 49ers won, SF 26, CLE 8. Our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has San Francisco 49ers at -5.5, meaning the book expects San Francisco 49ers to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 13, the San Francisco 49ers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Cleveland Browns were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 35.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.8, 9.3 above the market.
Week 13 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cleveland Browns, SF 17, CLE 19 in Week 6 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, San Francisco 49ers: SF +0.018 against CLE -0.094.
