SF @ CLE – Week 13 2025
SF
CLE
SF
AWAY
26@8
SF BY 18
FINAL · WEEK 13
2025 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
Model confidence: SF 72%Our line: SF -8.0
SF
PICK SIDE
-5.5
MARKET SPREAD
-8.0
OUR LINE
-263
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.018Net EPA / play-0.094
+0.088Offense EPA / play-0.190
+0.070Defense EPA / play-0.096
48.3%Offense success %34.5%
48.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
SF A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SF. Projected margin: 8.0. Actual: 18. Off by 10.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 12.5 points.
HIGH WIND
20 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | SF | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -250 | +205 |
| Our fair price | -263 | +263 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD SF -5.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.45
OUR NUMBER
72%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
69%
DIFFERENCE
+4%
Both figures are for SF. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
Road Favorite 6-0 ATS (100%)
CLE
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
35°F
WIND
20 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
SF
C.McCaffrey
RB
416.6 SEASON PPR
B.Purdy
QB
177.4 SEASON PPR
J.Jennings
WR
173.3 SEASON PPR
CLE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
San Francisco 49ersPASSING
B.Purdy2167 yd · 20 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
C.McCaffrey1202 yd · 10 TD
B.Robinson400 yd · 2 TD
B.Purdy147 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
C.McCaffrey102 rec · 924 yd · 7 TD
J.Jennings55 rec · 643 yd · 9 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs CLE
QUESTIONS
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 72% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project SF by 8.0. The market has SF at -5.5.
The model projects 44.8 combined points. The market total is 35.5.
Week 13 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cleveland Browns, SF 17, CLE 19 in Week 6 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, San Francisco 49ers: SF +0.018 against CLE -0.094.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
