Raiders vs Chargers – Week 13 2025
LV
LAC
LV
AWAY
14@31
LAC BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 13
2025 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Las Vegas Raiders 14, Los Angeles Chargers 31.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 80% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Raiders, 1 Chargers.
Model confidence: LAC 80%Our line: LAC -11.3
ODDS
SPREAD
LAC -10.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LAC -11.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LAC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
-0.240Net EPA / play+0.059
-0.215 (32)Offense EPA / play-0.024 (25)
+0.024 (21)Defense EPA / play-0.083 (7)
37.6% (30)Offense success %43.1% (19)
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LAC. Projected margin: 11.3. Actual: 17. Off by 5.7 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
No noteworthy trends
LAC
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@LACW2 2026 | LV 26, LAC 14 | LAC | L |
| LAC@LVW2 2025 | LAC 20, LV 9 | LAC | W |
| LAC@LVW18 2024 | LAC 34, LV 20 | LAC | W |
| LV@LACW1 2024 | LV 10, LAC 22 | LV | L |
| LAC@LVW15 2023 | LAC 21, LV 63 | LV | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs LAC
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 80% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project LAC by 11.3. The market has LAC at -10.0.
Los Angeles Chargers won, LV 14, LAC 31. Our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 80% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Chargers at -10.0, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Chargers to win by 10.0 points.
In Week 13, the Las Vegas Raiders were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Los Angeles Chargers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.2, 5.7 above the market.
Week 13 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Las Vegas Raiders, LV 26, LAC 14 in Week 2 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Los Angeles Chargers: LV -0.240 against LAC +0.059.
