Bengals vs Ravens – Week 13 2025
CIN
BAL
CIN
AWAY
32@14
CIN BY 18
FINAL · WEEK 13
2025 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cincinnati Bengals 32, Baltimore Ravens 14.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 76% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Bengals, 2 Ravens.
Model confidence: BAL 76%Our line: BAL -9.4
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -9.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
-0.138Net EPA / play+0.010
-0.009 (19)Offense EPA / play+0.034 (12)
+0.130 (29)Defense EPA / play+0.024 (20)
45.5% (11)Offense success %44.6% (13)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL A+-tier pick misses. CIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BAL but CIN won. Projected margin was 9.4, the model overestimated by 27.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 25.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
38°F
WIND
11 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@CINW15 2025 | BAL 24, CIN 0 | BAL | W |
| CIN@BALW10 2024 | CIN 34, BAL 35 | BAL | W |
| BAL@CINW5 2024 | BAL 41, CIN 38 | BAL | W |
| CIN@BALW11 2023 | CIN 20, BAL 34 | BAL | W |
| BAL@CINW2 2023 | BAL 27, CIN 24 | CIN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs BAL
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 76% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project BAL by 9.4. The market has BAL at -7.0.
Cincinnati Bengals won, CIN 32, BAL 14. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 76% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -7.0, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 13, the Cincinnati Bengals were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Baltimore Ravens were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 52.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.7, 6.8 below the market.
Week 13 of the 2025 season, THU 8:20 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, BAL 24, CIN 0 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Baltimore Ravens: CIN -0.138 against BAL +0.010.
