2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CIN @ BAL – Week 13 2025
CIN
BAL
CIN
AWAY
32@14
CIN +18
FINAL · WEEK 13
2025 SEASON
BAL
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: BAL
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: BAL 76%Projected margin: 8.4
BAL
PICK SIDE
-7.0
SPREAD
8.4
PROJ MARGIN
-274
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL A+-tier pick misses. CIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BAL but CIN won. Projected margin was 8.4 -- the model overestimated by 26.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 25.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.0 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -274 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CIN
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
38°F
WIND
11 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
CIN
J.Chase
WR
313.6SEASON PPR
C.Brown
RB
282.6SEASON PPR
T.Higgins
WR
211.6SEASON PPR
BAL
D.Henry
RB
279.5SEASON PPR
Z.Flowers
WR
243.3SEASON PPR
L.Jackson
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@CINW15 2025 | BAL 24, CIN 0 | BAL | W |
| CIN@BALW10 2024 | CIN 34, BAL 35 | BAL | W |
| BAL@CINW5 2024 | BAL 41, CIN 38 | BAL | W |
| CIN@BALW11 2023 | CIN 20, BAL 34 | BAL | W |
| BAL@CINW2 2023 | BAL 27, CIN 24 | CIN | L |
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES