CIN @ BAL – Week 13 2025
CIN
BAL
CIN
AWAY
32@14
CIN BY 18
FINAL · WEEK 13
2025 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
Model confidence: BAL 76%Our line: BAL -9.4
BAL
PICK SIDE
-7.0
MARKET SPREAD
-9.4
OUR LINE
-313
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.138Net EPA / play+0.010
-0.009Offense EPA / play+0.034
+0.130Defense EPA / play+0.024
45.5%Offense success %44.6%
47.8%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL A+-tier pick misses. CIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BAL but CIN won. Projected margin was 9.4, the model overestimated by 27.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 25.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CIN | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +295 | -375 |
| Our fair price | +313 | -313 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BAL -7.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
76%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
76%
DIFFERENCE
+0%
Both figures are for BAL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
38°F
WIND
11 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
CIN
J.Chase
WR
313.6 SEASON PPR
C.Brown
RB
282.6 SEASON PPR
T.Higgins
WR
211.6 SEASON PPR
BAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cincinnati BengalsPASSING
J.Burrow1809 yd · 17 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
C.Brown1019 yd · 6 TD
S.Perine382 yd · 3 TD
T.Brooks45 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
J.Chase125 rec · 1412 yd · 8 TD
T.Higgins59 rec · 846 yd · 11 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@CINW15 2025 | BAL 24, CIN 0 | BAL | W |
| CIN@BALW10 2024 | CIN 34, BAL 35 | BAL | W |
| BAL@CINW5 2024 | BAL 41, CIN 38 | BAL | W |
| CIN@BALW11 2023 | CIN 20, BAL 34 | BAL | W |
| BAL@CINW2 2023 | BAL 27, CIN 24 | CIN | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs BAL
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 76% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project BAL by 9.4. The market has BAL at -7.0.
The model projects 45.7 combined points. The market total is 52.5.
Week 13 of the 2025 season, THU 8:20 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, BAL 24, CIN 0 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Baltimore Ravens: CIN -0.138 against BAL +0.010.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
